Time management. The highweighters of Ukrainian politics have opened presidential race long time before its official start.

There is no such a thing as “a lack of time” for a person who understands, what the time-management is. That’s why I’ve decided to come back to blogging, despite of a pretty much pressed working schedule. Ukrainian politicians don’t want to waist the time left before the official start of the presidential race also (according to the 'new edition' of the Law on elections, it's 19 October 2009): streets of the cities, towns and villages of Ukraine, as well as the sides of big roads, are already stuffed with the billboards with political promises.

To my impression, the most active in the pre-electoral advertising are the Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko and ex-Chairman of Parliament Arseniy Yatseniuk. Their PR-ideas are rather original as well. Though, it seems to me that Mr. Yatseniuk is simply wasting money: his strangely colored boards and bizarre slogans are kind of shot in the eye for his ratings, imho.

So, Yulia Tymoshenko plays with contraposition. 'They promise, she works', 'They block, she works', 'They obstruct, she works', 'They ruin, she works', etc, her billboards are declaring. No names, but everyone understands, who is She.

The visual messages of Arseniy Yatsenyuk are supposed to use a kind of military symbolism to emphasize his willingness and ability to become a strong leader. But, frankly speaking, it doesn't look very convincing.

The April Fool’s Day. Ukrainian Parliament scheduled presidential election to be held three months earlier than it was expected – on 25 October 2009.

The Parliament of Ukraine has decided today to schedule the next presidential election on 25 October 2009. Just to remind, previously most of MPs and experts suggested the election of President has to be held in January 2010 – 4 years after the Inauguration day. The decision of Verkhovna Rada was a kind of an answer to the Presidential address to Parliament (yesterday).

Actually the real background of today’s vote of Ukrainian Parliament is hiding not exactly in the speech of the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko, and even not in his unexpected idea to change a Constitution by himself, or to introduce a two-chamber Parliament with a rather weak Lower House.

There is a rumor that the Presidential Secretariat has already drafted a Decree to dismiss the current Parliament and to call for a snap parliamentary election in a nearest future. To stay ahead, all the parliamentary factions united in common decision: to cut the presidential term of Mr. Yushchenko for 3 months. The second, but not less significant goal of the MPs was to secure their immunities: the Constitution says the Parliament shall not be dismissed during 6 months before presidential election.

401 of MPs voted in favor of “25 October”, 7 – the Presidential part of Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defence faction (United Center party) – voted against. Vyacheslav Kyrylenko, member of OU-PSD, addressed his colleagues during the parliamentary debates: “What are we afraid of? Early parliamentary election? Dear Mr. Speaker, do you have information on the respective Decree of the President? Please, make this information public!”

What's next? Viktor Yushchenko is going to challenge the decision of Parliament in the Constitutional Court of Ukraine. “This decision is not legal, this decision does not correspond to the Constitution”, he said today. “All of them are going to lose before the October… The election will be held in due time, provided by the Constitution of Ukraine”.

The version of the Constitution of Ukraine acting in 2004 (when Mr. Yushchenko was elected) says the presidential election should be held every four years. A current edition of the Constitution provides that the President shall be in power during four years after he assumed the office.

“After this speech, I’ll pass to Speaker Lytvyn my project of a new Constitution ”. Viktor Yushchenko addressed the Parliament of Ukraine.

The President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko has addressed the Parliament today with his annual speech. Mr. Yushchenko failed to appear in Verkhovna Rada with his speech last year - the parliamentary tribune was blocked - but this time he has fully made up for lost opportunity.

The ordinary presidential speech with the expected call for all the political leaders to stop fighting and unite all the forces for saving Ukrainian economy in crisis times was finished with a surprise. President informed that he's going to introduce to Parliament of Ukraine a new project of the Constitution of Ukraine - right now.

Viktor Yushchenko proposes a dramatic change of the very system of powers in Ukraine. First of all, he wants Ukraine to have the two-chamber Parliament, and to reduce a number of MPs.

According to President, the Lower Chamber of the Parliament of Ukraine shall be elected by proportional voting system (like today) with open political party lists. The Lower Chamber will form the Government and control its work. "The inability to form the Government will lead to the dismissal of the Lower Chamber, but not all the Parliament. In this case the work of the Parliament will not stop," Viktor Yushchenko noticed.

The Upper Chamber should be elected among the representatives of regions of the country - using the majority voting system. It will work in lose connection with the President of Ukraine, in particular, dealing with the security issues. Every district of Ukraine will have 3 Senators elected.

"The political turbulence will be left in the Lower Chamber of Parliament", Viktor Yushchenko thinks. "President, together with the Upper Chamber, will secure stability of the state".

The President of Ukraine called for an urgent examination of his project of the Constitution of Ukraine in Parliament.

What’s up, Ukraine: a headless Foreign Ministry and new talks on early presidential race.

The Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko declared she is in favour of the early presidential election in her country. “The sooner there will be presidential election in Ukraine, the better it will be politically cured”, she said in the column for French Le Monde, published today. Today Mrs. Tymoshenko is on the travel to France, where she’s meeting with French President Nicolas Sarcozy.

Yulia Tymoshenko thinks that the biggest mistake of the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko is that he used some dirty weapon against her. “I always offered him my hand. I was only person during the Orange revolution he could rely on. I had never betrayed him. The struggle will end with his political suicide”, she added. When asked what could stop her from becoming president in the near future, she said: "Nothing!"

Meanwhile, The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine was sacked yesterday. 250 Members of Parliament of Ukraine voted in favour of the dismissal of Mr. Ogryzko: the oppositional Party of Regions, the Communists, and 49 lawmakers from the parliamentary Block of Yulia Tymoshenko. As the authoritarian rule inside the Prime Minister’s faction is a well-known fact, the result of this vote means that Mrs. Tymoshenko was in favour of the dismissal. “Ohryzko did not suit me as a minister,” PM said. “He is not professional, he is a person who has been making provocations against the government.”

Mr. Ogryzko, always loyal to Viktor Yushchenko, recently was in a center of scandal with Russian foreign ministry: he warned the Ambassador of Russia in Ukraine, ex-Prime Minister of Russia Viktor Chernomyrdin that he may become persona non grata in Ukraine for his critical statements. Before his dismissal, Volodmyr Ogryzko addressed Parliament on the recent ruling of the U.N. court, establishing the maritime border between Ukraine and Romania – it is considered as a big fiasco of Ukrainian diplomacy, as Ukraine in fact lost a big part of its territory inside the Soviet Union border (the UN-court decision may become a dangerous precedent for future attempts to change existing post-Soviet borders).

The press-secretary of President Iryna Vannikova said the dismissal of Ohryzko “was untimely and ungrounded.” “It makes absolutely no sense to weaken the country’s foreign policy, and to create new source of tensions in the middle of the economic crisis,” she emphasized.

Some Western media say that the dismissal of Ogryzko may shift Ukrainian foreign policy from pro-Western to pro-Russian. I would not agree with that. I’d better say that the Ministry of Foreign affairs was clearly not friendly to Russia, and also was often acting against the interests of its own country – Ukraine – moving the domestic political quarrels on the international stage. However, taking to the account the recent statements of Mrs. Tymoshenko in Le Monde, the last tendency mentioned above is not going to change.

Next regular election of the President of Ukraine will be held in October 2009. Or in January 2010. Or in December 2010.

The Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko made a very interesting statement yesterday. She said, “it left 9 month until the election of President” in Ukraine. It was not a kind of “slip of the tongue”: Mrs. Tymoshenko repeated the phrase about the nine months a couple of times. So, she will try to schedule the regular Presidential election for late October 2009.

The Head of the Committee on Judicial Policy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Sergiy Mishchenko said on Friday, 23 January that he has the information from the insiders in Presidential Secretariat that they are trying to agree with the Central Election Commission to hold the presidential vote in December 2010. Besides, Mr. Mishchenko himself is sure that the Presidential election should be held on 17 January 2010, counting this date from the Inauguration day of 23 January 2005.

According to Ukrainian law, the date of the regular election of President has to be scheduled by the resolution of Parliament.

A bit of history:

The first President of Ukraine – Leonid Kravchuk – was elected in one tour on 1 December 2001.

In 1994 the early presidential election was held together with early parliamentary election: first tour took place on 26 June 1994, and the second tour – on 10 July 1994. Leonid Kuchma was a winner of presidential race, Leonid Kravchuk lost.
The third presidential election in Ukraine was held in 1999: first tour was on 31 October 1999 and second tour – on 14 November 1999. The leader of the Communist party Petro Symonenko couldn’t beat President Kuchma, and he saved his post with more than 56% of voters’ support.
The first tour of presidential election 2004 was held on 31 October. Current President Viktor Yushchenko and current opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych met in a second tour on 21 November. The Central Election Commission declared the winner was Viktor Yanukovych. After the mass actions of protest, later called the Orange revolution, the Supreme Court of Ukraine cancelled the results of the 2nd tour on 3 December. The new second tour was held on 26 December. Viktor Yushchenko won with the result of 51.99%.

New round of political fight. Yulia Tymoshenko accused Viktor Yushchenko in preparation to declare the state of national emergency.

Today’s press briefing of the Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko has brought some new colours to controversy between main authorities of Ukraine. She informed journalists that the current goal of the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko is to lead the country to default in order to declare the state of emergency. “By declaring the state of national emergency, President will cancel presidential election (the presidential campaign is supposed to start in summer 2009. – T.V.)”, Mrs. Tymoshenko explained, mentioning that the Constitution prohibits holding election when the country is in a state of emergency.

Yulia Tymoshenko also said that if today or tomorrow Viktor Yushchenko not dismiss the Head of the National Bank of Ukraine, “he will be personally responsible for all that is happening in Ukrainian economy”.

It’s a democracy. The question calling the President of Ukraine to leave the country has won the biggest Internet rating.

Today the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko held his annual concluding press conference. In frames of this event he has answered a couple of questions of Ukrainian Internet users, which were submitted in advance. I was following the process of submission of questions with a big interest, as the most popular one appeared to be the following: Mr. President, how much money should the people of Ukraine pay to convince you and other top authorities to leave this country?

Actually, it is not a question but an attitude of Ukrainians toward President in particular, and all the ruling politicians in general. I voted for it, and a lot of my friends – almost all of the people I was talking with during last 2-3 weeks – did the same. I may say that Ukrainians of very different positions and ranges supported this question. For example, the link to this question I received by e-mail from my friend who is a housewife with a very active social position. Of course I didn’t believe that the question would be really asked. But it happened, and all the Ukraine has heard it during a live translation of the press conference on TV and radio. I have to mention that President was surely prepared for that. And tried to move the responsibility for this question outside the borders of Ukraine.

Viktor Yushchenko declared that “it is a provocation”, and that “the respected authors of this question are situated not in Ukraine, and don’t represent Ukrainians” (having in mind Russians, of course). “We even can not pose a question without help”, President assumed. Also Mr. Yushchenko said, “The real authorities should be half step ahead to show the way to nation”. The leader of nation shall tell, “our choice is such-and-such, we have to go in such a direction”, no matter “you like it or not”.

And some extra quotations of President I liked the most:
“The version of early presidential election is written not in Ukrainian offices”.
“Parliament is the most destabilising institution”.
“It is good when Parliament works like an aquarium – clear and visible”.

Total opposition. All the main political players and institutions in Ukraine are in opposition to each other.

Starting from the middle of last week, the Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko was moving step by step to the point of no return in her relationship with the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko, making rougher and rougher statements. On Saturday, 20 December she reached this point. Mrs. Tymoshenko publicly declared she is in opposition to President and wishes him to resign immediately, called him a thief, accused him in the fall of a national currency rate, and said she is sorry for helping him to become President in 2004.

“I don’t want to be a member of such a governing team, and that’s why I’m clearly declaring that I am in opposition to such an authorities like the President of Ukraine, Head of the National Bank of Ukraine, and all the criminal group that surrounds them”, Prime Minister said during the press briefing. “I am very sorry that this person, I’m talking about President Yushchenko, in favour of whom I was standing on all the maydans (squares. – T.V.), agitating and convincing people for him as an honest and moral politician, and now he went down to such a level, when it is shameful even to say his name”.

Viktor Yushchenko will answer to Mrs. Tymoshenko today at 8 PM of Kyiv time, at the weekly news show on Inter TV channel. But the press service of President has already quoted his interview. Mr. Yushchenko says that the last statements of PM Yulia Tymoshenko put her “in the opposition to Ukrainian people and the country”.

“Today the problem is not in my relationship with this lady”, President says. “She declared the opposition to the nation, to the country”. Viktor Yushchenko is sure that Prime Minister just wants to escape from the responsibility for her actions as a Head of Government.

“The situation is obviously out of control of Prime Minister for a long time”, Mr. Yushchenko emphasized. “But today the moment of responsibility is coming close. Who will be responsible for the inflation of 22%? External crisis? Our crisis is sitting on Grushevskogo street, 7th floor, in the office of Prime Minister”.

The central bank attacked back the Government two days before, stating that “the government's inept policies in running the economy... led to a situation in December in which the country could find itself in the internal default”. “The Government now has no funds to pay salaries, pensions and social benefits or to cover its domestic and external obligations”, the National Bank of Ukraine informed.

So, today the Prime Minister of Ukraine is in opposition to the President of Ukraine and to the National Bank of Ukraine. The President of Ukraine is in opposition to Prime Minister. The National Bank is also acting like a political body, declaring its non-support of the Government and its policies. Official opposition – the Party of Regions – is declaring it is against all the powers mentioned above, and is waiting for spring to come to power after the fail of the “Orange leaders”. The new-elected Speaker of the Parliament Volodymyr Lytvyn is claiming for neutrality, but in fact is in opposition to everyone who is interested in the snap parliamentary election, which would take the high post in Parliament off from him.

United Center. The Our Ukraine party of Viktor Yushchenko may unite with the party of Viktor Baloha.

After a split of the Our Ukraine – People Self-Defence (OU-PSD) parliamentary faction into pro-President and pro-Coalition parts, the President’s Office is thinking seriously about what to do next. The Our Ukraine party, which is officially headed by Viktor Yushchenko, seems to be split also, and its members are demoralised and bewildered. In its current state the party cannot serve as a real support for President neither in Parliament, nor during the elections – both parliamentary and presidential. There is a strong need for the Our Ukraine party to be reunited and reshuffled somehow. It seems that President Yushchenko, together with his Secretariat, has already worked out a decision – to unite the Our Ukraine with the United Center (UC) party of Viktor Baloha, the Head of Presidential Secretariat.

It is a fact that Viktor Yushchenko lost his influence on Parliament and its work. Even the part of OU-PSD that didn’t join the Coalition with the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko and the Block of Lytvyn is getting out of Presidential control. The previous Head of the OU-PSD faction, member of Our Ukraine Vyacheslav Kyrylenko resigned from this position. Another old strong supporter and friend of Viktor Yushchenko, New York born Roman Zvarych, declared that he may leave the Our Ukraine party at all. Situation with the regional offices of Our Ukraine is even worse. As member of Our Ukraine Puslan Knyazevych (who signed a Coalition treaty) informed journalists yesterday, the party local managers have lack of finances, and feel like “being thrown out” as the central party leaders hadn’t contacted them for months.

Kseniya Lyapina, member of the Our Ukraine who didn’t join the Coalition, worries about the future of her party. In particular, she shared with journalists the information that some people - on behalf of the United Center - are proposing money to the local representatives of the Our Ukraine party . “We are against unification with the UC”, Mrs. Lyapina emphasized.

The irony is that to unite Our Ukraine with the United Center does not mean to strengthen the “presidential party”. Despite of bright financial opportunities, the UC is very weak, and doesn’t have a visible party structure. The Member of Parliament of Ukraine and member of the United Center party Lesya Orobets have recently said in a live interview at the Radio Liberty that total amount of UC members is about 100-200 people in every region. According to this info, the most optimistic estimation of a current size of the United Center is a bit more than 5000 (five thousand!) members. So, is it the Our Ukraine who is in need of support?

I would suggest that the union of the Our Ukraine and the United Center is an idea and a goal of Viktor Baloha, who is interested in re-gaining a status of the Member of Parliament before the presidential election, using the rests of the rating of Viktor Yushchenko in parliamentary campaign. Just as a leader of the United Center, unknown in regions, Mr. Baloga may not win 3% of votes to pass the electoral barrier, not using so called administrative resource.

The future of the Our Ukraine party may be decided next week, when the party Summit will have place.

The Coalition of BYT, OU-PSD and BL factions in Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine does exist. But it is not constitutional.

The Coalition Treaty, uniting the parliamentary factions of the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko (BYT), the Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defence (OU-PSD), and the Block of Lytvyn (BL), was triumphantly signed today in Verkhovna Rada. On behalf of the BYT faction the Coalition Treaty was signed by the Head of the faction Ivan Kyrylenko, on behalf of the OU-PSD – as it was promised earlier – by its Deputy Head Borys Tarasyuk, and on behalf of the BL faction – by the faction’s new Head Igor Sharov. The official name of the Coalition – National Development, Stability, and Order.

37 members of OU-PSD signed the document (total size of the Coalition – 213 MPs). The Head of the OU-PSD faction Vyacheslav Kyrylenko declared that he is going to resign from his position, as he doesn’t represent the faction’s majority anymore. “Any agreement with Tymoshenko worth less than the paper she’s putting her signature on, because it will not be realised, and this will be the main problem of the Coalition”, he said. Mr. Kyrylenko also called the new Coalition as “a serious threat for the state”, noticing the “dominating power” of the Communist Party in this Coalition.

But the Communist party role in the recent developments in Parliament (which is obvious) is not actually the biggest problem of a new parliamentary block of factions. The main paradox is that this newly formed Coalition does not correspond with provisions of the Constitution of Ukraine. We may say that there is a declared unity of factions in Parliament, but there is no new Coalition in its legal meaning.

According to the Part 6 of the Article 83 of the Constitution of Ukraine, “a Coalition of deputy factions, consisted of the majority of Members of Parliament of Ukraine of the constitutional membership of Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, shall be formed”. (Here is the official translation of the Constitution, but I have to notice that in Ukrainian language the coalition-part sounds more clear, emphasizing that the coalition should comprise the majority of MPs). So, according to the Constitution, 226 or more Members of Parliament should form the Coalition.

There is also a decision of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine, adopted in September 2008 (a detailed info in Ukrainian may be read here), which states that “the requirement on the overall number of Members of Parliament of Ukraine, who on the strength of parliamentary factions are forming the Coalition of parliamentary factions, concerns the moment of formation of the Coalition, and all the period of its activity as well”.

Parliamentary cheating – III. Is Yulia Tymoshenko trying to steal the President’s faction?

Just 30 minutes ago the press conference of Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko was finished. First of all, Mrs. Tymoshenko declared that the parliamentary coalition of three factions – the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko (BYT), the Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defence (OU-PSD) faction, and the Block of Volodymyr Lytvyn – does exist.

Talking about the coalition PM was operating with the word combination “the majority of OU-PSD faction”. According to parliamentary rules, the majority – not consensus – is making the final decisions inside any faction, emphasizes Yulia Tymoshenko. That means that the BYT will try to save the coalition in any price, even if the strictly pro-presidential part of the OU-PSD faction will be against that. Actually, President may lose his parliamentary faction and his influence in Parliament at all. (The possible consequences are rather predictable – a snap election). Deputy Chief of OU-PSD faction Borys Tarasyuk has already mentioned that he may sign the coalition treaty again, if the Chief of the faction Vyacheslav Kyrylenko will refuse to do it.

One more remark concerns the Blackstone company, hired by the Government for millions of dollars to consult Ukraine on how to spend $16,4 billion credit of the International Monetary Fund. Yulia Tymoshenko mentioned that the company was chosen “according the current legislation” (though nobody heard about such a tender), and that it is “highly estimated by the IMF management”. Also Mrs. Tymoshenko admitted that she did meet the billionaire George Soros in Kiev one month ago, and that he gave her “advices on how to fight the world financial and economic crisis’ consequences”.

Parliamentary Cheating II. OK, the Speaker is elected, but is there any coalition in Ukrainian Parliament?

On Tuesday, 9 December at 17.46 PM by Kiev time Volodymyr Lytvyn was elected as a Head of the Verkhovna Rada. His candidacy was supported by 154 MPs from the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko (total size of faction – 156 MPs), 40 MP’s from the Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defence Block (total size of faction – 72), 20 MP’s from the Block of Volodymyr Lytvyn (total size – 20), and also 27 MP’s from the Communist party faction (total size – 27) and 3 MPs from the Party of Regions (total size – 175).

It was really hard to believe that the Presidential faction of the Our Ukraine - People’s Self-Defence Block (OU-PSD) will –support Volodymyr Lytvyn, together with the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko (BYT) and even with communists, despite the will of President Viktor Yushchenko, who was against the candidacy of Mr. Lytvyn and publicly in favour Ivan Plyushch, member of his party. But the things went even further: a new-elected Head of Parliament declared the formation of the coalition of OU-PSD, BYT, and the Block of Volodymyr Lytvyn.

The Tuesday events are still the object of discussion not only for political analysts, but also for politicians themselves. I would quote the main statements of historical Tuesday and the following day.

Tuesday, 9 December 2008:

Petro Symonenko, leader of the Communist Party of Ukraine stated his party supported the candidacy of Volodymyr Lytvyn to unblock the work of Parliament to fight the world economy crisis consequences. “We voted for the work of Verkhovna Rada”, he said, adding that the communists would never vote for Ivan Plyushch or any other candidacy from national-democratic forces.

Head of the Verkhovna Rada Volodymyr Lytvyn doesn’t see any preconditions to re-elect Prime Minister or to make cardinal changes of Government. But “it’s obvious that there will be some proposals from the coalition concerning the structure of the Government”, Mr. Lytvyn thinks.

Our Ukraine - People’s Self-Defence faction did not approve a text of the Treaty, forming the coalition of OU-PSD, BYT, and the Block of Volodymyr Lytvyn, the press-service of OU-PSD faction informed. Deputy Head of the faction Borys Tarasiuk signed the text of Coalition Treaty without the faction’s agreement. The project of Coalition Treaty will be in the agenda of a faction sitting on 10 December.

The Party of Regions has doubts on the liveliness of a new-formed coalition, if it will not have a permanent support of the Communist party, one of the PR faction leaders Oleksandr Efremov said. “It’s hard to imagine, how communists could work together with the nationalists”, he mentioned. “Without the Communist Party faction, the new-formed coalition doesn’t have 226 votes to approve decisions in Parliament”.

Member of Parliament of the OU-PSD faction (leader of the PSD) Vladyslav Kaskiv declared that there is no coalition in parliament as there is no decision of the OU-PSD faction on participation in this coalition; and there is also no Coalition Treaty as nobody in the OU-PSD is familiar with such a document. “De facto we can say that Volodymyr Lytvyn, obviously moved by positive emotions, made a political statement. But there are no legal fact of forming the coalition”, Mr. Kaskiv said. “We can not do good things with not honest methods… The misrepresenting of facts took place today”.

Wednesday, 10 December 2008:

The President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko greets Volodymyr Lytvyn for his election as a Head of Verkhovna Rada. “I hope that the election to this responsible position of so experienced and well-balanced politician will permit to unblock a work of the highest lawmaking institution of a country”, he noticed. Parliament has to approve anti-crisis laws and the project of a State Budget for 2009 as an urgent matter, and the needed condition for that is “parliamentary coalition, efficient and capable de jure and de facto”.

Member of Parliament of OU-PSD faction Ksenia Lyapina informed, “During 4 days we have to sign a Treaty (coalition treaty. – TV); if not, the Head of the Verkhovna Rada has to disown his statement about the formation of a coalition”. During the OU-PSD faction sitting on 10 December, MPs “came to a conclusion that the Coalition Treaty doesn’t exist, nobody of us signed it or authorised anybody to sign it”, Mrs. Lyapina noticed.

Taras Stetskiv, Member of Parliament (OU-PSD, PSD branch) emphasized that the coalition “legally does not exist as it is not signed”.

Oleksandr Efremov, the Party of Regions faction noticed that during the Coordination Council sitting Wednesday, 10 December “one of the Deputy Heads of OU-PSD block Roman Zvarych declared that his faction didn’t make a decision on formation of a coalition with the BYT and the Block of Lytvyn, and Borys Tarasiuk was not authorised to sign the Coalition agreement. So, in reality there is no parliamentary coalition”.

Statement of the Presidium of the Political Council of the party of Regions: “So-called formation of a coalition in Parliament is the another adventure and fraud of people. We don’t believe in capacity of this so-called coalition not only because it doesn’t have the quantity of voices needed. We don’t believe in this coalition as it is based on the politicians who had twice proved their incapacity to work together, to work effectively”… “Ukraine will have to watch again the scandal show of Orange chiefs, who are eager to sink each other in a spoon of water. The Party of Regions is out of this campaign. We also would like to hear a clear position of communists – which was their motivation, when they supported Oranges?”

First Deputy Head of the BYT faction Andriy Kozhemyakin hopes that “a progressive part” of the Party of Regions faction will take part in a constructive work of the Parliament. “It is obvious that the highest management of the Party of Regions is leaded by its own ambitions, not understanding that the crisis is a threat for independence of Ukraine”, he added.

Deputy Head of the OU-PSD faction Borys Tarasiuk issued a statement where he noticed that “due to the absence of a Head of the OU-PSD faction Ivan Kyrylenko during the negotiations, I took responsibility to sign the document on founding of a coalition of three factions – OU-PSD, BYT, and the Block of Lytvyn. Of course, I understood that it would be better if the Head of the faction signed this document. But I don’t know whether Ukrainians would understand us, if, delaying action until the next day, we lost this unique chance to start to work in Parliament normally”.

The Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko in her TV appeal to the citizens: “Parliamentary political crisis is over. A normal and consistent work will start in Verkhovna Rada tomorrow. Our hands are free from the irons… All these positive steps were done not with the help of President, but in spite of his active countermeasures to the formation of the Coalition”.

So, is there any coalition in Parliament? Nobody knows. The answer to this question depends on the results of current negotiations of parliamentary factions.

P.S. There is still a possibility of formation of a coalition in Verkhovna Rada with participation of the Party of Regions.

Chasing the shadow. What kind of Ukraine the President dreams of?

During these latter days I was thinking a lot, trying to find an answer to one question: what is the current political strategy of the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko? It emerged that it’s not an easy thing to understand. Since the early autumn President is literally pushing Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko to form a coalition with the Party of Regions (PR) of Viktor Yanukovych, one of the main “enemies” of Orange Revolution. But the same time Viktor Yushchenko doesn’t want this alliance to be formed.

In September 2008 Mr. Yushchenko accused Mrs. Tymoshenko in high treason (after the vote for cutting presidential powers, which she performed together with the PR on 2nd of September). Then members of President’s Our Ukraine party stepped out of so-called Democratic coalition with the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko (BYT), de facto blocking the work of Parliament. In October President issued a decree that dismissed Verkhovna Rada and scheduled early parliamentary election. In November Viktor Yushchenko decided to cast aside the idea of snap election, publicly encouraging parliamentary factions to unite for adoption of anti-crisis legislation in the name of state interests. The same time Our Ukraine party officially declared that it would not form a coalition with the BYT and/or the PR faction. No logic?

Mr. Yushchenko seems to be in favour of a kind of “technical coalition”, when parliamentary factions vote concordantly, but do not sign any coalition papers. Theoretically, it gives an opportunity for President to call early election any time he wants (it would be legitimate as the coalition doesn’t exist), and also to question the legitimacy of Government any day he’s in a mood for. Nevertheless, the BYT and the PR were close to accept the idea of "technical coalition", but… Viktor Yushchenko ruined it himself. He declared that only Our Ukraine faction should propose the candidacy for Speaker, which was unacceptable for the biggest parliamentary parties. As a result, the BYT and the PR announced their possible alliance, but President answered to that by calling the probable coalition “a danger for Ukrainian democracy”.

What is the President’s logic today, and what does he want to achieve in a long run? Igor Kril, member of the United Centre party founded by Head of the President’s Secretariat Viktor Baloha, gave a little hint on Friday, 5 December. Talking about a candidacy of Prime Minister, acceptable for his party, Mr. Kril said, the PM “should not run for President”. Which means that he/she will not be a competitor for Viktor Yushchenko in 2009. That gives us a tip, why President choose as his Speaker candidate Ivan Plushch, Soviet-times’ Communist Party activist, and now member of Our Ukraine – Mr. Plusch doesn’t have noticeable political ambitions.

The ideal system of top state authorities in Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko is dreaming of, should be built of modest “technical” people, and crowned by President. Any strong political player holding a key rating-forming position in Government or Parliament is a priory a threat for stability of the mentioned system. It is without doubt that Mr. Yushchenko will keep fighting these threats, using his favourite methods – false situational alliances, presidential veto, and a shadow of snap parliamentary poll. The endless circle may be broken only by presidential election (or Constitutional reform), which will mark a starting point for a new political game. Hopefully, it will be performed according to rules of democracy.

The Bogus Marriage. A coalition of the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko and the Party of Regions is likely to be formed in December 2008.

The Thursday’s sitting of Verkhovna Rada lasted only 8 minutes. Members of Parliament decided to take a time-out for extra negotiations, and to renew their work on Tuesday, 9 December. MPs invited the President of Ukraine and Prime Minister to be present on the sitting that day to witness how Parliament will get out of crisis. Viktor Yushchenko will not come to Verkhovna Rada on Tuesday, he’s going to pay a working visit to Lithuania. Maybe that’s right decision: it will be surely not “his day”. In contrary, Yulia Tymoshenko may appear in Parliament – to celebrate another political victory of her party.

As it was predicted earlier, a coalition of the Party of Regions (PR) and the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko (BYT) looks like just a matter of time. At least, leaders and members of both factions are not denying the fact of negotiations on this issue anymore. On 2 December, MP from the BYT faction Valeriy Pysarenko said “the BYT is ready to form a coalition with the Party of Regions”. The same statements were made by some other BYT and PR MPs during this week. In the Party of Regions’ official rhetoric the future coalition is called as “anti-crisis” and “built on pure economic reasons”, not on ideological ground.

According to insider’s information, the text of a new coalition treaty has already been initialized. But it doesn’t mean that the document will be signed on Tuesday. At first, the PR and BYT have to elect a new Speaker. It still may be a leader of the People's Party Volodymyr Lytvyn or member of the Party of Regions and current First Vice-Speaker Oleksandr Lavrynovych. The BYT and PR have enough MPs – 331 (the constitutional majority is 300 MPs out of 450) – to amend the Constitution in first reading. The main goal of the reform will be to elect President of Ukraine not by popular vote, but in Parliament, which is more convenient for big parliamentary parties. After a joint vote on the constitutional amendment the BYT-PR coalition may be officially formed. New allies will go on with the constitutional reform process after the New Year holidays, in early February. As a result, Ukraine may have President Viktor Yanukovych, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, and Viktor Yushchenko in opposition, like in “old good times”.

President Yushchenko – of course – doesn't like the BYT-PR reformation ideas. “If this kind of consolidation will not be restrained by the ideological positions, national interests, democratic interests, it may lead to serious challenges for Ukrainian democracy”, he declared on 4 December. President highlighted that the main danger of the BYT-PR coalition is “a deep revision of the Constitution of Ukraine”, which includes the idea of election of President in Parliament. “These are things which are ruining Ukrainian democracy and don’t correspond with our aspirations. This will throw Ukraine back from the sphere of stability for many years”, President argued. He emphasised he “will not allow” that.

Ukrainian media have already informed with reference to the reliable source at the Presidential Secretariat that “there is a new decree on snap election on the President’s working table”, and it is with open date.

Boring and sad: the best words to explain a current state of Ukrainian politics.

The President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko was on TV yesterday. He appeared in a live political evening show “Svoboda slova” (Freedom of Speech) at ICTV channel. A lot of my friends were looking forward to that event as it might give some keys to predict future developments in Ukrainian politics. It didn’t give any hints. I was sitting in my kitchen, drinking tea and watching TV prepared to make notes, when I suddenly realised that I’m terribly bored. Bored of lack of constructivism and predictability in what our politicians are doing or saying. It was really sad to think that way.

Here are some points I've noticed. First of all, President wanted to separate himself from all the problems the country is suffering of. “Government lost control over inflation”, “the Government’s politic was not a politic of Maydan”, claimed Viktor Yushchenko. He accused in political and economy crisis a “state power” as something to which he doesn’t have any relation at all.

The second main point is about the estimation of future of Parliament. Verkhovna Rada should work; otherwise there will be early election – that was the President’s message. Viktor Yushchenko still hopes that it is possible to elect a technical Speaker and to build a so-called situational coalition in Parliament. (Some ideas on “technical coalition” – in one of my previous posts here). A candidacy for Speaker’s chair “should be proposed by Our Ukraine party”, President thinks. But at the same time he mentions, “Our Ukraine is half-bought by BYT”.

Third point is that the very idea of early election is still alive, despite of President’s Secretariat arguments. After a snap parliamentary poll, all the parties elected may start “from a white peace of paper”, hopes Mr. Yushchenko, “it will be possible to do the manoeuvres, impossible now”.

P.S. On 2 December Parliament was working only for a little bit more than a half of an hour. Next meeting is scheduled for Thursday. Two alternatives have been discussed in couloirs: total paralysis of Parliament followed with snap election or the coalition of the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko and the Party of Regions (the details – in this post). Volodymyr Lytvyn has already called this possible coalition as “coup d’etat”.

What’s up, Ukraine? 23-30 November 2008.

Just in case. Viktor Yushchenko was elected as official leader of his party.
On November 29 Viktor Yushchenko was formally elected as a leader of the People's Union “Our Ukraine" party. From now he may appear as “number one” in the party list for early parliamentary elections, and will have a possibility to run for a position of Prime Minister. Previously President Yushchenko had been the party's honorary chairman.
Some experts think that there are possible problems with constitutional law, since article 103 of the Constitution of Ukraine states that “the president of Ukraine cannot have any other representative mandate, or occupy a position in institutions of executive power or associations of citizens.” The law “On Associations of Citizens” defines political parties as associations of citizens.

Last warning. Yulia Tymoshenko scheduled a deadline for formation of parliamentary coalition with "Our Ukraine" - 1st of December.
”If the democratic coalition is not formed until the end of this week, we will be looking for other options and opportunities,” Prime Minister said. She also made an offer to Volodymyr Lytvyn, leader of the faction of his name, to join the probable coalition of BYT-NU-NS “to form a strengthened variant of the democratic coalition.” The BYT faction was ready to support the candidature of Mr. Lytvyn for Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada.
Both Viktor Yushchenko and Volodymyr Lytvyn refused to join the proposed “democratic coalition”. Head of Presidential Secretariat Viktor Baloha noticed on Sunday’s news evening show that “today’s ultimatums of Yulia Tymoshenko is an evidence of one thing: inconsistency. Who may sit at the table for negotiations with BYT and say that the coalition is possible after that? It is not ethical to raise a question about the return, when it was she who did everything for this coalition not to exist”.

Another space. The Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Ministry accused Viktor Yanukovych in putting his leg on the President’s ground.
On 25 November Ukraine's Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the proposal of the leader of the Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych to establish the single economic space with Russia. Viktor Yanukovych put forward this idea at a congress of United Russia party in Moscow last week. “Since the start of talks on a comprehensive and enhanced free trade zone with the European Union, the issue of establishing a single economic space has lost its relevance," the Foreign Ministry said in a statement. The ministry emphasized that only President Viktor Yushchenko and Parliament, not party leaders, decide foreign policy priorities.

In contrary to national interests. Ukrainian hryvnia reached a new historic low on Friday.
Ukraine's currency sank to a new historic low on Friday, 28 November, at 7.5-7.6 to the dollar on the interbank market, against a low hit the previous day of 7.25-7.5. One of the conditions of the IMF 16.5 billion loan was greater currency flexibility. The National bank of Ukraine linked its official rate of hryvnia with the interbank rate.
Meanwhile, the Head of the National Bank’s Council Petro Poroshenko has accused Ukrainian authorities of the inefficient use of an IMF loan. “I may officially state that IMF resources are used very inefficiently,” he declared at a Russian-Ukrainian forum in Kiev on Friday. He also criticized authorities that agreed with the policy worked out by the IMF experts. In the opinion of Mr. Poroshenko, this policy “does not take into the account national interests of Ukraine.”

Black hole? Blackstone will consult Ukraine for 1 million euro monthly plus another 3,5 million, and all-inclusive working conditions for its experts.
Blackstone has been appointed as a financial adviser to Ukraine, highlighting the US private equity group's ambition to become the consultant of choice for countries faced with financial crisis, informs Reuters. According to a Ukraine cabinet document seen by the Financial Times, Blackstone will be paid a monthly fee of €1m ($1.26m) and a further €3.5m on completion of the contract. It will be paid all expenses, including bodyguards for staff. The contract, dated November 17, says Blackstone will co-ordinate Ukraine's $16.4bn standby loan from the International Monetary Fund, mediate between the government, the IMF and the World Bank and work on the country's stabilisation plan. It is also responsible for handling talks with Ukraine's creditors and developing a communication strategy for the stabilisation plan. The contract says Blackstone is not responsible for implementing the stabilisation plan or for its success. Blackstone's team of advisers to Ukraine is being led by Martin Gudgeon.

Charity first. Kateryna Yushchenko is on the visit to United States.
The first lady of Ukraine was visiting Pittsburgh hospitals at the end of last week – to gather some ideas that she can take back to her home country. Mrs. Yushchenko heads the supervisory board of the Ukraine 3000 International Charitable Foundation, which works with hospitals around the world to improve pediatric care in Ukraine. “She is coming basically to do work for her foundation, to see what can be done to help the hospitals in Ukraine,” said Luba Hlutkowsky, chairwoman of the board of directors of Pittsburgh Ukrainians, according to the local press.
More than 3,000 people in Pittsburgh – about 1 percent of the city's population – claim Ukrainian heritage. Kateryna Yushchenko, 47, was born in Chicago to Ukrainian immigrants. She moved to Kiev in 1991 and became a Ukrainian citizen in 2005, the year that her husband was elected president.

Parliamentary cheating. What will and will not happen on the 2nd of December.

I was not blogging only for two days, but there are really a lot of things I want to say. First of all, I would like to thank Mr. Joseph Gregg from San Antonio, Texas for his letter and the ideas on Ukrainian politics (and one of its top-persons Viktor Yushchenko) he expressed. Mr. Gregg gave his kind permission to be quoted on this website, and I will be pleased to share his thoughts with the readers of my blog, and to have their feedback also. I’m going to post this new discussion-topic on this page later today, but now let me give a couple of ideas about current situation in the Parliament of Ukraine.

As the next parliamentary sitting is approaching, Ukrainian politicians, analysts, and journalists are trying to predict if any coalition is to be formed on 2 December, and if any person is to be elected as a Speaker of Verkhovna Rada. Yesterday I met with one of my ex-colleagues, who’s rather informed about the development of a dialogue between parliamentary factions. When I asked him what did he think on the future of Parliament, he gave a rather interesting answer.

So, according to his predictions, Volodymyr Lytvyn (the leader of a parliamentary block of the same name) will not be elected as a Speaker, although his candidature was supported publicly by Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Moreover, nobody will be elected as a Speaker on 2 December. The Parliament will be left “on the hook” at least for a week or two. Or more. Then as an “urgent measure to save the country’s economy” a coalition between the Block of Julia Tymoshenko (BYT) and the “Party of Regions” (PR) of Viktor Yanukovych will be formed. This pact may be strengthened by a part of President’s faction “Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defence”. Volodymyr Lytvyn and his block will not join this coalition, as he will not have any political and practical dividends from that. The government will be re-structured to change “people of President” for people from the PR. After a while the Parliament will change the Constitution of Ukraine in order to switch to the pure parliamentary democracy, and to elect the President in Parliament. Posts of the President and Prime Minister will be divided between Mrs. Tymoshenko and Mr. Yanukovych. Also they will divide all the Ukraine (areas of political and business interests), and will live long and happy. The end.

I would like to add that the idea of coalitioning of Mrs. Tymoshenko and Mr. Yanukovych has been widely discussed in Ukraine for a long time. But previously personally I didn’t believe in that. My logic was the following: building of the coalition with the Party of Regions is surely an effective step in law-making process (as both parties have very strict party discipline, and may perform a positive vote on any topic their leaders would agree), but it will harm the image of Yulia Tymoshenko dramatically. Viktor Yanukovych was one of the guys the Orange Revolution and Maydan were about, and the electorate of BYT is consisted of people who believe in the ideals and promises of the Orange Revolution. Taking to the account the presidential ambitions of Julia Tymoshenko, the coalition with Yanukovych may lead her to failure.

But if the goal of the new coalition is to change the type of democracy, and to establish pure parliamentary republic, there is no need to care about electoral ratings. And that makes the coalition to look like a very well constructed step. But very cynical also, I should add. The BYT-PR coalition will be also supported by Russia as less nationally oriented. Actually that’s not good for Ukrainian independence, both economic and political. But in a short-term it may look like even profitable for Ukraine to fight crisis more effectively, using Russian gas at low-price again.

Anyway there are some contra-arguments. First of all, even if such a coalition is to be formed, it may not be liveable. Both political powers (and their leaders) don’t trust each other, and don’t respect each other. Secondly, there are really no rules in today’s Ukrainian politics. Every plan may be approved, but changed two hours later. Even this very moment a new way for development of political situation in Ukraine may be discussed.

P.S. One more question: and what about Viktor Yushchenko? May Ukraine come back to the situation of late 2004?

What's up, Ukraine? (8-14 November 2008)

1. The Headless Parliament. Arseniy Yatseniuk is dismissed from the post of Head of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.
My point of view on a situation you may read in one of my previous posts here.

2. President announces the government change. The results of 4th Baku Energy Summit.
On 13-14 November the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko visited Azerbaijan to take part in 4th Energy Summit. Unfortunately, the main news from the Summit for Ukraine can not be put in frames of energy issues.
In his interview to journalists Yushchenko said that switching of the Odesa-Brody pipeline to avers (forward) mode has been blockading because of political motives. He expressed opinion that such attitude is explained by “political promises and obligations” of the Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. “The consultations, the Prime Minister had before September in certain capitals and the decisions, the government made after that… blocked transportation of Caspian oil”, the President said.
Viktor Yushchenko also mentioned that “starting from the end of the first half of the 2009, we will be supplied with amounts of oil needed to start the avers mode. I am assured that that time we will have a new Government, which will be able to realise a healthy politics that corresponds to the national interests”.

3. NATO: yes, but not today. On 13 November 2008 the Minister of Defence of Ukraine Yuriy Yekhanurov took part in the high-level NATO-Ukraine meeting in Tallinn, capital of Estonia.
The main conclusion of the Summit: Ukraine has a lot to do before it will be ready to become member of the NATO. Ukraine was hoping to join the bloc’s Membership Action Plan (MAP) at the NATO Summit in December with the US support. But other influential members of NATO (like Germany and France) are thinking that to start the MAP with Russia’s neighbour is not a good idea as for today.
“Let me remind you that at the Bucharest Summit earlier this year, NATO heads of state and government welcomed Ukraine Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO and agreed that Ukraine will become a member of the alliance,” stressed NATO secretary general de Hoop Scheffer. US Defense Secretary Robert Gates also emphasiced his country’s support for Georgian and Ukrainian membership. Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves said that “the fact that Ukraine is here today with NATO ministers of defence should convince everyone that NATO understands Ukraine's importance to European security… We should consider how to move beyond the current deadlock over timelines and political symbols.”
So, everyone is thinking positively. It means that Ukraine will become member of NATO in future. May I remind that the EU leaders also promised that Turkey will become member of the European Union. The question is about time-frames. Ukrainian NATO membership bid is really very complicated by internal political crisis and – what is more important – a lack of public support. It seems to me, we do have time to change the situation for better.

4. Holodomor: Distorted History. On 17 November the President of Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev wrote a letter to the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko.
I’ll just give English translation of the most interesting parts of this letter. No comments:
“In response to your messages concerning the so-called Holodomor as well as the steps taken by the Ukrainian leadership on the issue, I consider it necessary to elaborate on our views of and approaches to the issues at hand. We clearly see that in recent years this topic combined with persistent attempts to receive a NATO «membership action plan», have become a central element of Ukrainian foreign policy.
In our opinion, the tragic events of the early 1930s in Ukraine are being used to achieve immediate short-term political goals.
The famine in the Soviet Union in 1932-1933 was not aimed at the destruction of any one nation. It was the result of a drought, forced collectivization and de-kulakization [campaign of political repressions of the better-off peasants and their families] and affected the entire country, not only Ukraine. Millions of people in the middle and lower Volga regions, northern Caucasus, central Russia, southern Urals, western Siberia, Kazakhstan and Belarus died.
I do not consider it possible to participate in the activities surrounding the 75th anniversary of the «Holodomor» in Ukraine”.
Full text of this letter (translated to English) you may read on the official website of the President of Russia here.

5. Yulia Tymoshenko met George Soros.
As Ukrainian media have informed, on 8 November Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko met with famous billionaire George Soros. The meeting took place in Kiev, but not in a center, but in a restaurant near Boryspil airport. Ukrainska Pravda informs that the meeting was confidential, and a role of the interpreter performed the Vice-Prime Minister of Ukraine Hryhoriy Nemyria (who previously worked as a head of Soros Foundation's institution in Ukraine). One of the main reasons of a meeting is future presidential election in Ukraine, journalists think.
President Victor Yushchenko is also tapping the same door. On 14 November we held a phone conversation with the newly elected President of the USA Barack Obama (George Soros was among his financial donors). Victor Yushchenko and Barack Obama agreed to hold a bilateral meeting shortly after the inauguration ceremony of the new President of the USA.

Viktor Yanukovych backs Viktor Yushchenko’s image?

“I don’t want to believe that Viktor Yushchenko wanted the resignation of Head of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine”, this is how the ex-Speaker Arseniy Yatseniuk commented the situation around his dismissal in an interview for one of Ukrainian TV channels on 13 November 2008. “And moreover (I don’t want to believe. – T.V.) that he gave such a command”.

It seems to me nobody wants us to believe that.

Even the biggest enemy of presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko at times of the Orange Revolution, and the main opposition leader as for the current moment Viktor Yanukovych. At least, the statement of leader of the Party of Regions on 13 November sounded very supportive towards President. “Yushchenko called me from Warsaw (on 12 November. – T.V.) and asked me to stop a process of dismissal of Yatseniuk and to have consultations. I refused to do that”, said Yanukovych.

Nevertheless, Arseniy Yatseniuk didn’t give any answer to a question on possibility for a new political party he’s going to form to join Yushchenko’s block at snap parliamentary election.

Parliament of Ukraine: The Headless Horseman

Speaker of Ukrainian Parliament Arseniy Yatseniuk was dismissed on 12 November. New Head of the Parliament has not been elected yet. Ukrainian parliamentary democracy – and a country Ukraine as a whole – is now again on the political hook. Analysing current situation I’ve got at least 14 conclusions:

1. As for today in the Parliament of Ukraine does exist a kind of “technical coalition”, which actually dismissed Speaker Yatseniuk.

2. This “technical coalition” consists of the factions of the Party of Regions (175 Members of Parliament), the Communist Party (27 MPs), the Block of Volodymyr Lytvyn (20 MPs), and also of a part of pro-presidential faction “Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defence” (OU-PS), loyal to Head of the Secretariat of President Viktor Baloha (10 MPs; total size of faction – 72 MPs), plus at least 1 MP from the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko (BYT, total size of faction – 156 MPs).
Total: 233 MPs.

3. Only 217 of MPs didn’t vote for the Speaker’s dismissal. It is not enough to build an “alternative” coalition.

4. Despite of all the controversial info on alleged quarrel between President Yushchenko and Head of his staff Viktor Baloha, Viktor Yushchenko was definitely involved in taking the decision on the future of Arseniy Yatseniuk.

5. At least, Viktor Yushchenko did know that the Speaker was to be dismissed. Otherwise Mr. Baloha would not be a Chief of President’s Secretariat anymore.

6. Viktor Baloha may lose his post after signing the coalition treaty with the mentioned group of factions leaded by the Party of Regions. But it will not mean that President is against this coalition.

7. The “technical coalition” may stay only “technical” or “situational”, and may never be legalised. As to my mind, a new coalition treaty will not be signed in the mentioned format, but all the “company” may vote synchronically on previously discussed and agreed questions.

8. The “technical coalition” will elect so-called “Technical Speaker” to make the results of their votes legitimate. (As only Head of the Parliament have a right to sign laws adopted by the Parliament).

9. The formation of technical or real coalition without BYT does not mean an inevitable dismissal of the Government and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. It’s easy to blame her in all the negative consequences of economy crisis and to harm her rating for future (current) presidential race.

10. Using a well known in Ukraine word combination “I’m leaving (this post. – T.V.) to be back”, previously used by Presidents Leonid Kuchma and Viktor Yushchenko, ex-Speaker Arseniy Yatseniuk have declared his presidential ambitions. But they are unlikely to be realised in a nearest future.

11. Yulia Tymoshenko already blamed President for a “betrayal” and for a “final ruining of any hope on a democratic coalition revival”. There at least two ways for her now: to make a “technical arrangement” with a “technical coalition”, and to stay in power or to fight with the Party of Regions and their new friends publicly, which will lead to resignation of the Government.

12. Third way, profitable for Julia Tymoshenko – snap parliamentary election. Her recent rhetoric (as well as the statements of members of BYT) shows that she may choose this way, trying to look as an innocent victim of President’s game.

13. Early parliamentary elections are inevitable. But the poll will definitely not happen this year. All the politicians need time for more populism.

14. Ukraine is in urgent need of a new generation of politicians to overcome “dirty game” tendencies, deep-rooted in Ukrainian politics.