A couple of quotations from today’s press-conference of the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko:
"The ruling coalition in Parliament is de facto absent".
"The majority voting system will never be presented again in Ukraine".
"The parliamentary coalition should prove it has 226 MPs, and re-introduce a candidature of PM".
"I'm ready to hold early presidential election, if the parliament agrees to hold early parliamentary election on a base of a new electoral law, and to abolish unlimited parliamentary immunities"
"Decision of the Constitutional Court shall be the base for future actions (concerning early parliamentary election. – T.V.)"
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) made public its World Economic Outlook today. The Fund revised its forecast of GDP of Ukraine to a drop of 8 percent this year, from the earlier figure of 3 percent. It also predicted the economy of Ukraine would grow 1.0 percent in 2010.
The World Bank also revised its 2009 forecast this month, and said that the Ukrainian GDP will drop to 9 percent from a previous prediction of minus 4 percent.
Ukrainian government still thinks that GDP-2009 will grow on 0.4 percent. In 2008, the economy grew 2.1 percent.
Showing posts with label financial crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label financial crisis. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
“After this speech, I’ll pass to Speaker Lytvyn my project of a new Constitution ”. Viktor Yushchenko addressed the Parliament of Ukraine.
The President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko has addressed the Parliament today with his annual speech. Mr. Yushchenko failed to appear in Verkhovna Rada with his speech last year - the parliamentary tribune was blocked - but this time he has fully made up for lost opportunity.
The ordinary presidential speech with the expected call for all the political leaders to stop fighting and unite all the forces for saving Ukrainian economy in crisis times was finished with a surprise. President informed that he's going to introduce to Parliament of Ukraine a new project of the Constitution of Ukraine - right now.
Viktor Yushchenko proposes a dramatic change of the very system of powers in Ukraine. First of all, he wants Ukraine to have the two-chamber Parliament, and to reduce a number of MPs.
According to President, the Lower Chamber of the Parliament of Ukraine shall be elected by proportional voting system (like today) with open political party lists. The Lower Chamber will form the Government and control its work. "The inability to form the Government will lead to the dismissal of the Lower Chamber, but not all the Parliament. In this case the work of the Parliament will not stop," Viktor Yushchenko noticed.
The Upper Chamber should be elected among the representatives of regions of the country - using the majority voting system. It will work in lose connection with the President of Ukraine, in particular, dealing with the security issues. Every district of Ukraine will have 3 Senators elected.
"The political turbulence will be left in the Lower Chamber of Parliament", Viktor Yushchenko thinks. "President, together with the Upper Chamber, will secure stability of the state".
The President of Ukraine called for an urgent examination of his project of the Constitution of Ukraine in Parliament.
The ordinary presidential speech with the expected call for all the political leaders to stop fighting and unite all the forces for saving Ukrainian economy in crisis times was finished with a surprise. President informed that he's going to introduce to Parliament of Ukraine a new project of the Constitution of Ukraine - right now.
Viktor Yushchenko proposes a dramatic change of the very system of powers in Ukraine. First of all, he wants Ukraine to have the two-chamber Parliament, and to reduce a number of MPs.
According to President, the Lower Chamber of the Parliament of Ukraine shall be elected by proportional voting system (like today) with open political party lists. The Lower Chamber will form the Government and control its work. "The inability to form the Government will lead to the dismissal of the Lower Chamber, but not all the Parliament. In this case the work of the Parliament will not stop," Viktor Yushchenko noticed.
The Upper Chamber should be elected among the representatives of regions of the country - using the majority voting system. It will work in lose connection with the President of Ukraine, in particular, dealing with the security issues. Every district of Ukraine will have 3 Senators elected.
"The political turbulence will be left in the Lower Chamber of Parliament", Viktor Yushchenko thinks. "President, together with the Upper Chamber, will secure stability of the state".
The President of Ukraine called for an urgent examination of his project of the Constitution of Ukraine in Parliament.
Monday, January 19, 2009
Ukraine-Russia gas transit and supply contracts: Europe will not suffer from gas-cut during next 10 years, gas price for Ukraine still in shadow.
First of all, I would like to thank Tammy Lynch, Bakinets, and Anonymous reader for their comments to my gas posts. Well, I have to confess that my price prognosis has appeared to be rather pessimistic. I will be really happy, if I am wrong: the less the gas price is, the better it is for Ukraine and its economy.
Why I suggested that the gas price for Ukraine will be around $320 per tcm in 2009? My thoughts were based on three things:
1. Ukrainian negotiators were insisting on fixed gas price (I was pleasantly surprised when I’ve heard today that the gas price formula has been worked out for Ukraine).
2. The Prime Minister of Russia Vladimir Putin, President Dmitri Medvedev and the head of Gazprom Alexei Miller were declaring the “European price” for Ukraine at the level of $450 per tcm (last time Mr. Putin told that on Saturday, 17 January).
3. Gazprom has just switched to some “European formula” in his relations with Turkmenistan, and the price of Turkmen gas for Russians in the first quarter of 2009 will be about $300 per tcm.
It seemed logical to assume that the gas price for Ukraine should be at least more than $300. It is really great if the today’s statement of Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko is true, and Naftogaz will pay only around $235-250 per tcm. (She also told that the 20% discount will save $5 billion, which is possible when the price is $220). It would be like a miracle, if the average price for Ukraine were $199 as was suggested by the Secretariat of Ukrainian President. But we have to think, why Moscow agreed for such a low price level, as the Gazprom is clearly not a charity foundation, especially at crisis times.
Anyway, it is still difficult to say, how much Ukraine will pay for gas in 2009. There is not much information about the gas supply contract at all. Here is all I know today:
a) Gas supply and gas transit contracts are signed for 10 years;
b) Starting from 2010, the transit fee and the gas price will be calculated on a base of a clear formula (I hope this “Ukrainian formula” does already exist);
c) In 2009 there will be a fixed gas price for Ukraine, based on “average European gas price minus 20%”;
d) Transit fee in 2009 will stay at the level of 2008 – $1.7 per tcm for 100 km;
e) There will be no mediators in gas trade between Ukraine and Russia (but I think it’s early to say good bye to RosUkrEnergo as a player on European gas market).
Yulia Tymoshenko promised to make the new gas price public “in one-two days”, and it seems that the price is not agreed yet, despite of any paper signed. As the Russian TV reported, after signing the documents and press briefing Mrs. Tymoshenko went to the Gazprom office for some extra negotiations.
Talking about the gas price in 2010, I would like to propose a link, which leads to the fresh prognosis of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., forecasting “swift and violent rebound” in energy prices in the second half of the 2009.
Oil prices may have reached their lowest point already, after falling to $32.40 in mid-December, and are expected to rise to $65 by the end of this year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. commodity analyst Jeffrey Currie said at a conference in London today. A recent tactic of using supertankers to store crude oil to take advantage of higher prices later this year is “difficult” to profit from and is “near the end of this process” anyway, the Goldman analyst said.
New York crude futures for delivery in December, trading near $56 a barrel, currently cost some $15 a barrel more than March futures, a market situation known as contango, where prices are higher for later delivery. The contango is likely to flatten as supply cuts by OPEC and other producers take effect, reducing the availability of oil for immediate delivery, Mr. Currie said.
Why I suggested that the gas price for Ukraine will be around $320 per tcm in 2009? My thoughts were based on three things:
1. Ukrainian negotiators were insisting on fixed gas price (I was pleasantly surprised when I’ve heard today that the gas price formula has been worked out for Ukraine).
2. The Prime Minister of Russia Vladimir Putin, President Dmitri Medvedev and the head of Gazprom Alexei Miller were declaring the “European price” for Ukraine at the level of $450 per tcm (last time Mr. Putin told that on Saturday, 17 January).
3. Gazprom has just switched to some “European formula” in his relations with Turkmenistan, and the price of Turkmen gas for Russians in the first quarter of 2009 will be about $300 per tcm.
It seemed logical to assume that the gas price for Ukraine should be at least more than $300. It is really great if the today’s statement of Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko is true, and Naftogaz will pay only around $235-250 per tcm. (She also told that the 20% discount will save $5 billion, which is possible when the price is $220). It would be like a miracle, if the average price for Ukraine were $199 as was suggested by the Secretariat of Ukrainian President. But we have to think, why Moscow agreed for such a low price level, as the Gazprom is clearly not a charity foundation, especially at crisis times.
Anyway, it is still difficult to say, how much Ukraine will pay for gas in 2009. There is not much information about the gas supply contract at all. Here is all I know today:
a) Gas supply and gas transit contracts are signed for 10 years;
b) Starting from 2010, the transit fee and the gas price will be calculated on a base of a clear formula (I hope this “Ukrainian formula” does already exist);
c) In 2009 there will be a fixed gas price for Ukraine, based on “average European gas price minus 20%”;
d) Transit fee in 2009 will stay at the level of 2008 – $1.7 per tcm for 100 km;
e) There will be no mediators in gas trade between Ukraine and Russia (but I think it’s early to say good bye to RosUkrEnergo as a player on European gas market).
Yulia Tymoshenko promised to make the new gas price public “in one-two days”, and it seems that the price is not agreed yet, despite of any paper signed. As the Russian TV reported, after signing the documents and press briefing Mrs. Tymoshenko went to the Gazprom office for some extra negotiations.
Talking about the gas price in 2010, I would like to propose a link, which leads to the fresh prognosis of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., forecasting “swift and violent rebound” in energy prices in the second half of the 2009.
Oil prices may have reached their lowest point already, after falling to $32.40 in mid-December, and are expected to rise to $65 by the end of this year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. commodity analyst Jeffrey Currie said at a conference in London today. A recent tactic of using supertankers to store crude oil to take advantage of higher prices later this year is “difficult” to profit from and is “near the end of this process” anyway, the Goldman analyst said.
New York crude futures for delivery in December, trading near $56 a barrel, currently cost some $15 a barrel more than March futures, a market situation known as contango, where prices are higher for later delivery. The contango is likely to flatten as supply cuts by OPEC and other producers take effect, reducing the availability of oil for immediate delivery, Mr. Currie said.
Monday, January 5, 2009
The High Treason. Non-settled gas dispute with the Russian Gazprom is leading Ukraine to energy bankruptcy and deep economy problems.
On 1 of December Russian Gazprom cut off gas supply to Ukraine. This news was among the top-3 in the entire world media during the New Year holidays. I think it would be first if there was no war in sector Gaza. The reasons of Gazprom’s actions are totally legitimate: unpaid debt for gas supply to Ukraine in 2008 and non-existence of a supply contract for 2009. Such a confusing situation seems to be not a terrible negligence of Ukrainian authorities, but a carefully planned scheme. The goal is to take the case to state of total mess, and then to re-divide the scheme of control of profits from gas supply to Ukraine. As a side effect, the State oil and gas company Naftogaz Ukraine may go bankrupt and Ukraine may lose control of its huge gas transportation system in favour of Russia or some Russia-leaded consortium.
These actions of Ukrainian officials can definitely be qualified as a high treason. But nobody will be charged for that.
There is no need to remind here the very details of the debt-dispute Russia and Ukraine had in late December 2008 – the media explained it very good. Talking in general, the Naftogaz Ukraine failed to pay off a debt for gas shipped from Russia in 2008: it paid $1.52 billion just one day before the New Year, but Gazprom claimed the total debt was $2.1 billion (including $450 million of penalties for the late payment for November and December gas shipments).
Current situation differs from the gas problems of early 2006. Now Ukraine has significant amounts of gas saved in storages: about 17 billion cubic metres (bcm) is owned by Naftogaz Ukraine, and the intermediary RosUkrEnergo (I’ll talk about this company later) has extra 11 bcm. That’s why there is no evidence of harm for Ukraine caused by the gas cut-off. Yet. But the gas battle with Gazprom will definitely influence the crisis-hit Ukrainian economy, pushing it down. World economy crisis reduced the industrial energy consumption in Ukraine almost by a quarter, and the main problems may be laid on shoulders of Ukrainian citizens. Higher gas prices will lead to rise of a gas fees for the households, which are heavily subsidising by the state.
The problem is that a dramatic raise of gas prise was not planned in the budget of Ukraine for 2009, approved by Parliament and signed by President before the New Year holidays. Moreover, a gas-supply part of the budget had been highly criticised even before problems with Gazprom went too far. The Deputy Head of the Secretariat of the President of Ukraine Oleksandr Shlapak said on 29 December that the 1.6 billion hryvnias, the budget assigned for Naftogaz Ukraine to keep low gas prises on the internal market, is not enough at all. “If we even manage to keep a gas price at $179.5 per 1,000 cubic meters (tcm) during the talks with our Russian partners, and the Ukrainian hryvnia’s rate to dollar stay at 7.5, there will be a need to compensate for Naftogaz Ukraine up to 9.2 billion hryvnias. Feel the difference”, he informed.
This means that in 2009 somebody will go bankrupt: either Naftogas, or Ukrainian citizens, or even Ukrainian state.
The gas price for Ukraine is really a painful question for years. In 2008 Naftogaz Ukraine had to pay $179.5 per tcm for gas from Russia, which is almost 3 times less than EU countries were paying. Due to the agreement to switch to market prices “step by step”, Gazprom offered the price rise to $250 per tcm for 2009. But it was already too high for Ukraine: it was going to pay not more than $201 per tcm (according to budget plans of the Government). As a result, Ukrainian officials didn’t sign even temporary agreement and left the country without contracted gas supply at all. Can somebody imagine such a thing to happen on a state level in any other European country?
It’s obvious that something is standing behind this artificially made conflict. It seems that the real source of Ukrainian gas problems, which may easily ruin the country’s economy, is a fight for the profits from gas transit and supply to Ukraine. As for this moment the only party of gas-supply scheme didn’t lose a cent from this situation is the RosUkrEnergo, the gas-trading intermediary between Russia and Ukraine. This company is making profit “buying” huge amounts of Russian gas on Ukrainian border and re-selling it to Ukraine (working also indirectly on Ukrainian domestic market) and some Eastern European countries (like Hungary and Romania). So, everyone who is in charge of RosUkrEnergo has guaranteed billions of profit. As for today, Russian Gazprom owns 50% of RosUkrEnergo, another half is under control of the commercial structures of Ukrainian-born businessman Dmytro Firtash. By the way, he also is linked with Ukrainian Nadra bank, which was accused by Yulia Tymoshenko in fraud with hryvnia rate in December (here is a link to my post about this matter).
That’s all I have time to write today. To be continued…
These actions of Ukrainian officials can definitely be qualified as a high treason. But nobody will be charged for that.
There is no need to remind here the very details of the debt-dispute Russia and Ukraine had in late December 2008 – the media explained it very good. Talking in general, the Naftogaz Ukraine failed to pay off a debt for gas shipped from Russia in 2008: it paid $1.52 billion just one day before the New Year, but Gazprom claimed the total debt was $2.1 billion (including $450 million of penalties for the late payment for November and December gas shipments).
Current situation differs from the gas problems of early 2006. Now Ukraine has significant amounts of gas saved in storages: about 17 billion cubic metres (bcm) is owned by Naftogaz Ukraine, and the intermediary RosUkrEnergo (I’ll talk about this company later) has extra 11 bcm. That’s why there is no evidence of harm for Ukraine caused by the gas cut-off. Yet. But the gas battle with Gazprom will definitely influence the crisis-hit Ukrainian economy, pushing it down. World economy crisis reduced the industrial energy consumption in Ukraine almost by a quarter, and the main problems may be laid on shoulders of Ukrainian citizens. Higher gas prices will lead to rise of a gas fees for the households, which are heavily subsidising by the state.
The problem is that a dramatic raise of gas prise was not planned in the budget of Ukraine for 2009, approved by Parliament and signed by President before the New Year holidays. Moreover, a gas-supply part of the budget had been highly criticised even before problems with Gazprom went too far. The Deputy Head of the Secretariat of the President of Ukraine Oleksandr Shlapak said on 29 December that the 1.6 billion hryvnias, the budget assigned for Naftogaz Ukraine to keep low gas prises on the internal market, is not enough at all. “If we even manage to keep a gas price at $179.5 per 1,000 cubic meters (tcm) during the talks with our Russian partners, and the Ukrainian hryvnia’s rate to dollar stay at 7.5, there will be a need to compensate for Naftogaz Ukraine up to 9.2 billion hryvnias. Feel the difference”, he informed.
This means that in 2009 somebody will go bankrupt: either Naftogas, or Ukrainian citizens, or even Ukrainian state.
The gas price for Ukraine is really a painful question for years. In 2008 Naftogaz Ukraine had to pay $179.5 per tcm for gas from Russia, which is almost 3 times less than EU countries were paying. Due to the agreement to switch to market prices “step by step”, Gazprom offered the price rise to $250 per tcm for 2009. But it was already too high for Ukraine: it was going to pay not more than $201 per tcm (according to budget plans of the Government). As a result, Ukrainian officials didn’t sign even temporary agreement and left the country without contracted gas supply at all. Can somebody imagine such a thing to happen on a state level in any other European country?
It’s obvious that something is standing behind this artificially made conflict. It seems that the real source of Ukrainian gas problems, which may easily ruin the country’s economy, is a fight for the profits from gas transit and supply to Ukraine. As for this moment the only party of gas-supply scheme didn’t lose a cent from this situation is the RosUkrEnergo, the gas-trading intermediary between Russia and Ukraine. This company is making profit “buying” huge amounts of Russian gas on Ukrainian border and re-selling it to Ukraine (working also indirectly on Ukrainian domestic market) and some Eastern European countries (like Hungary and Romania). So, everyone who is in charge of RosUkrEnergo has guaranteed billions of profit. As for today, Russian Gazprom owns 50% of RosUkrEnergo, another half is under control of the commercial structures of Ukrainian-born businessman Dmytro Firtash. By the way, he also is linked with Ukrainian Nadra bank, which was accused by Yulia Tymoshenko in fraud with hryvnia rate in December (here is a link to my post about this matter).
That’s all I have time to write today. To be continued…
Friday, December 26, 2008
Expected Gift. The Parliament of Ukraine made a Christmas present to Yulia Tymoshenko, sending the project of budget back to her office.
Verkhovna Rada failed to pass the 2009 budget on Thursday, December 25. Most of the Members of Parliament decided that the project of budget is not realistic, in particular, because of its extra-optimistic economic forecasts. The budget, presented by the Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko on Tuesday, 23 December, supposes that the inflation will stay in frames of 9,5%, hryvnia rate to US dollar will be not more than 7-7,5, and the GDP will grow to 0,4%.
The result of the vote has demonstrated the absence of the real coalition of majority in Ukrainian Parliament. The budget was supported by all MPs of the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko and the Block of Lytvyn, and also by 44 MPs from the ex-president’s faction Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defense. But the faction of the Communist party (who is not a Coalition member) was not in favor, and the vote failed.
Parliament will hold the sitting today, on Friday 26 December (starting at 10 AM), and will come back to the budget question – and will face problems again. Even non-economist may see that there are problems with a revenue side of the budget, and with the macroeconomic forecast (as was said). Also as Ukraine still hasn’t signed an agreement with Russia on gas supply, and nobody knows the price of gas for 2009, all the economic planning that was made is very approximate.
Some sources in Verkhovna Rada suppose that the budget 2009 will not be adopted before the New Year.
The result of the vote has demonstrated the absence of the real coalition of majority in Ukrainian Parliament. The budget was supported by all MPs of the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko and the Block of Lytvyn, and also by 44 MPs from the ex-president’s faction Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defense. But the faction of the Communist party (who is not a Coalition member) was not in favor, and the vote failed.
Parliament will hold the sitting today, on Friday 26 December (starting at 10 AM), and will come back to the budget question – and will face problems again. Even non-economist may see that there are problems with a revenue side of the budget, and with the macroeconomic forecast (as was said). Also as Ukraine still hasn’t signed an agreement with Russia on gas supply, and nobody knows the price of gas for 2009, all the economic planning that was made is very approximate.
Some sources in Verkhovna Rada suppose that the budget 2009 will not be adopted before the New Year.
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
New round of political fight. Yulia Tymoshenko accused Viktor Yushchenko in preparation to declare the state of national emergency.
Today’s press briefing of the Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko has brought some new colours to controversy between main authorities of Ukraine. She informed journalists that the current goal of the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko is to lead the country to default in order to declare the state of emergency. “By declaring the state of national emergency, President will cancel presidential election (the presidential campaign is supposed to start in summer 2009. – T.V.)”, Mrs. Tymoshenko explained, mentioning that the Constitution prohibits holding election when the country is in a state of emergency.
Yulia Tymoshenko also said that if today or tomorrow Viktor Yushchenko not dismiss the Head of the National Bank of Ukraine, “he will be personally responsible for all that is happening in Ukrainian economy”.
Yulia Tymoshenko also said that if today or tomorrow Viktor Yushchenko not dismiss the Head of the National Bank of Ukraine, “he will be personally responsible for all that is happening in Ukrainian economy”.
Monday, December 22, 2008
What’s up, Ukraine? 15-21 December 2008.
Falling currency . On Thursday, 18 December the Ukrainian hryvnia dropped to its historical low against the US dollar – 10-10.5.
Less than a half of the year ago US dollar cost around 4.8 hryvnias. The Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko declared that the hryvnia’s value felt down due to “a special speculative operations planned at the currency market of Ukraine, and organized with the assistance of the National Bank (Central bank) and some other banks of Ukraine”, in particular, Nadra bank.
“The bank that was just bought for 600 million dollars, received from the National Bank financial resources of 7 billion 100 million hryvnias”, Yulia Tymoshenko said, adding that “the bribes made up from 3% to 7% of the total amount of financing”. Yulia Tymoshenko pointed out that Ukrainian businessman Dmytro Firtash (owner of the Group DF holding, which is famous also for a scandal around the financial support of the British Conservatives) and the Presidential Secretariat are standing behind the Nadra bank. “They need to tumble the hryvnia’s value to dollar”.
Getting closer. The U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko signed the U.S. – Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership.
The joint U.S. – Ukrainian declaration called a “Charter on Strategic Partnership”, signed in Washington on 19 December, appeals for the expanding of the economic and security ties between two countries, and strengthening of the cooperation in energy, trade and other areas.The document does not have a legally binding status.
The declaration states that the United States intends to open a diplomatic post in the Autonomy Republic of Crimea, a region that is highly influenced by Russia (there are many ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking people with Russian passports), and is hosting Russia's Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol (under a lease agreement until 2017). ”Ukraine welcomes the United States' intention to establish an American diplomatic presence (American presence post) in Simferopol, the capital of Crimea”, said the joint declaration.
State Department spokesman Sean McCormack has already said the Crimean diplomatic post would be a small one, dedicated to the organising of cultural events and doing political reporting. Mr. McCormack denied any intentions to provoke Russia by establishment of this post. ”This is about U.S.-Ukraine bilateral relations. If the Russian government chooses to be upset by ... my stating that we're considering opening up… a one-person or two-person American presence post, well, there's not much I can do about that,” he added. Russian officials haven’t made any statements on this point, but analysts are saying that this answer may be given in more sharp position of Moscow in gas-trade dialogue with Ukraine. Minister Ohryzko told reporters the post “probably will be done next year”.
Also Washington promised to help to strengthen the candidacy of Ukraine for NATO membership, which is another painful question for the official Russia. Nevertheless, U.S. would work within the NATO-Ukraine Commission to agree on a plan for training and equipping Ukrainian armed forces. “We plan to undertake a program of enhanced security cooperation intended to increase Ukrainian capabilities and to strengthen Ukraine's candidacy for NATO membership,” the document said.
Washington also promised to help Ukraine with “rehabilitating and modernizing the capacity of Ukraine's gas transit infrastructure”, cooling down Russian dreams to fort a consortium for the exploiting of Ukrainian gas lines.
Fitch Ratings: The credit outlook for the Ukrainian energy and utility sector during 2009 is negative.
The report issued on Thursday 18 December lists the main problems of the Ukrainian energy and utility sector: a funding crisis in the state-controlled power generation sector, downward pressure on regulated tariffs due to a severe recession, restricted access to bank lending and debt capital markets, and continued turmoil at NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine (‘B’/Rating Watch Negative). Fitch expects an economic recession in Ukraine in 2009 to drive down power demand, providing only temporary respite to falling capacity reserve margins.
Fitch expects liquidity and refinancing risk to remain high for the Ukrainian energy and utility sector through most of 2009, as foreign banks and markets remain effectively closed to Ukrainian issuers. Naftogaz will continue to confront major challenges in 2009, including a lack of transparency, potentially insufficient state subsidisation for its loss-making residential business, higher import prices, accumulating gas payables and restricted access to external financing. However, Fitch continues to view Naftogaz as an important strategic asset for the Ukrainian government (Ukraine rated at ‘B+’/Outlook Negative) and factors state support into the company’s rating.
The 2009 credit outlook, entitled "Ukrainian Energy and Utilities – 2009 Outlook”, is available on the agency's public website http://www.fitchratings.com/.
Eternal problem. Russia blocks Ukrainian famine-genocide resolution at the United Nations.
Russia blocked Ukraine-initiated UN resolution claiming Holodomor in the Soviet Union in early 1930s was famine-genocide aimed against Ukrainians, rather than a common tragedy of many nations in the country. “We succeeded to bloc the inclusion of the item into the agenda of the current UN General Assembly,” Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vitaly Churkin said on Thursday, 18 December, according to the Russian media.
The Ambassador also added the United States and Great Britain backed the Ukrainian motion, which “ended in nothing.” Mr. Churkin said Russian representatives were active in explaining the history of Holodomor to foreign partners. As a result, nine EU countries did not sign the Ukrainian declaration, although “EU members usually act in a consolidated manner”.
Less than a half of the year ago US dollar cost around 4.8 hryvnias. The Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko declared that the hryvnia’s value felt down due to “a special speculative operations planned at the currency market of Ukraine, and organized with the assistance of the National Bank (Central bank) and some other banks of Ukraine”, in particular, Nadra bank.
“The bank that was just bought for 600 million dollars, received from the National Bank financial resources of 7 billion 100 million hryvnias”, Yulia Tymoshenko said, adding that “the bribes made up from 3% to 7% of the total amount of financing”. Yulia Tymoshenko pointed out that Ukrainian businessman Dmytro Firtash (owner of the Group DF holding, which is famous also for a scandal around the financial support of the British Conservatives) and the Presidential Secretariat are standing behind the Nadra bank. “They need to tumble the hryvnia’s value to dollar”.
Getting closer. The U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko signed the U.S. – Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership.
The joint U.S. – Ukrainian declaration called a “Charter on Strategic Partnership”, signed in Washington on 19 December, appeals for the expanding of the economic and security ties between two countries, and strengthening of the cooperation in energy, trade and other areas.The document does not have a legally binding status.
The declaration states that the United States intends to open a diplomatic post in the Autonomy Republic of Crimea, a region that is highly influenced by Russia (there are many ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking people with Russian passports), and is hosting Russia's Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol (under a lease agreement until 2017). ”Ukraine welcomes the United States' intention to establish an American diplomatic presence (American presence post) in Simferopol, the capital of Crimea”, said the joint declaration.
State Department spokesman Sean McCormack has already said the Crimean diplomatic post would be a small one, dedicated to the organising of cultural events and doing political reporting. Mr. McCormack denied any intentions to provoke Russia by establishment of this post. ”This is about U.S.-Ukraine bilateral relations. If the Russian government chooses to be upset by ... my stating that we're considering opening up… a one-person or two-person American presence post, well, there's not much I can do about that,” he added. Russian officials haven’t made any statements on this point, but analysts are saying that this answer may be given in more sharp position of Moscow in gas-trade dialogue with Ukraine. Minister Ohryzko told reporters the post “probably will be done next year”.
Also Washington promised to help to strengthen the candidacy of Ukraine for NATO membership, which is another painful question for the official Russia. Nevertheless, U.S. would work within the NATO-Ukraine Commission to agree on a plan for training and equipping Ukrainian armed forces. “We plan to undertake a program of enhanced security cooperation intended to increase Ukrainian capabilities and to strengthen Ukraine's candidacy for NATO membership,” the document said.
Washington also promised to help Ukraine with “rehabilitating and modernizing the capacity of Ukraine's gas transit infrastructure”, cooling down Russian dreams to fort a consortium for the exploiting of Ukrainian gas lines.
Fitch Ratings: The credit outlook for the Ukrainian energy and utility sector during 2009 is negative.
The report issued on Thursday 18 December lists the main problems of the Ukrainian energy and utility sector: a funding crisis in the state-controlled power generation sector, downward pressure on regulated tariffs due to a severe recession, restricted access to bank lending and debt capital markets, and continued turmoil at NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine (‘B’/Rating Watch Negative). Fitch expects an economic recession in Ukraine in 2009 to drive down power demand, providing only temporary respite to falling capacity reserve margins.
Fitch expects liquidity and refinancing risk to remain high for the Ukrainian energy and utility sector through most of 2009, as foreign banks and markets remain effectively closed to Ukrainian issuers. Naftogaz will continue to confront major challenges in 2009, including a lack of transparency, potentially insufficient state subsidisation for its loss-making residential business, higher import prices, accumulating gas payables and restricted access to external financing. However, Fitch continues to view Naftogaz as an important strategic asset for the Ukrainian government (Ukraine rated at ‘B+’/Outlook Negative) and factors state support into the company’s rating.
The 2009 credit outlook, entitled "Ukrainian Energy and Utilities – 2009 Outlook”, is available on the agency's public website http://www.fitchratings.com/.
Eternal problem. Russia blocks Ukrainian famine-genocide resolution at the United Nations.
Russia blocked Ukraine-initiated UN resolution claiming Holodomor in the Soviet Union in early 1930s was famine-genocide aimed against Ukrainians, rather than a common tragedy of many nations in the country. “We succeeded to bloc the inclusion of the item into the agenda of the current UN General Assembly,” Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vitaly Churkin said on Thursday, 18 December, according to the Russian media.
The Ambassador also added the United States and Great Britain backed the Ukrainian motion, which “ended in nothing.” Mr. Churkin said Russian representatives were active in explaining the history of Holodomor to foreign partners. As a result, nine EU countries did not sign the Ukrainian declaration, although “EU members usually act in a consolidated manner”.
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Total opposition. All the main political players and institutions in Ukraine are in opposition to each other.
Starting from the middle of last week, the Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko was moving step by step to the point of no return in her relationship with the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko, making rougher and rougher statements. On Saturday, 20 December she reached this point. Mrs. Tymoshenko publicly declared she is in opposition to President and wishes him to resign immediately, called him a thief, accused him in the fall of a national currency rate, and said she is sorry for helping him to become President in 2004.
“I don’t want to be a member of such a governing team, and that’s why I’m clearly declaring that I am in opposition to such an authorities like the President of Ukraine, Head of the National Bank of Ukraine, and all the criminal group that surrounds them”, Prime Minister said during the press briefing. “I am very sorry that this person, I’m talking about President Yushchenko, in favour of whom I was standing on all the maydans (squares. – T.V.), agitating and convincing people for him as an honest and moral politician, and now he went down to such a level, when it is shameful even to say his name”.
Viktor Yushchenko will answer to Mrs. Tymoshenko today at 8 PM of Kyiv time, at the weekly news show on Inter TV channel. But the press service of President has already quoted his interview. Mr. Yushchenko says that the last statements of PM Yulia Tymoshenko put her “in the opposition to Ukrainian people and the country”.
“Today the problem is not in my relationship with this lady”, President says. “She declared the opposition to the nation, to the country”. Viktor Yushchenko is sure that Prime Minister just wants to escape from the responsibility for her actions as a Head of Government.
“The situation is obviously out of control of Prime Minister for a long time”, Mr. Yushchenko emphasized. “But today the moment of responsibility is coming close. Who will be responsible for the inflation of 22%? External crisis? Our crisis is sitting on Grushevskogo street, 7th floor, in the office of Prime Minister”.
The central bank attacked back the Government two days before, stating that “the government's inept policies in running the economy... led to a situation in December in which the country could find itself in the internal default”. “The Government now has no funds to pay salaries, pensions and social benefits or to cover its domestic and external obligations”, the National Bank of Ukraine informed.
So, today the Prime Minister of Ukraine is in opposition to the President of Ukraine and to the National Bank of Ukraine. The President of Ukraine is in opposition to Prime Minister. The National Bank is also acting like a political body, declaring its non-support of the Government and its policies. Official opposition – the Party of Regions – is declaring it is against all the powers mentioned above, and is waiting for spring to come to power after the fail of the “Orange leaders”. The new-elected Speaker of the Parliament Volodymyr Lytvyn is claiming for neutrality, but in fact is in opposition to everyone who is interested in the snap parliamentary election, which would take the high post in Parliament off from him.
“I don’t want to be a member of such a governing team, and that’s why I’m clearly declaring that I am in opposition to such an authorities like the President of Ukraine, Head of the National Bank of Ukraine, and all the criminal group that surrounds them”, Prime Minister said during the press briefing. “I am very sorry that this person, I’m talking about President Yushchenko, in favour of whom I was standing on all the maydans (squares. – T.V.), agitating and convincing people for him as an honest and moral politician, and now he went down to such a level, when it is shameful even to say his name”.
Viktor Yushchenko will answer to Mrs. Tymoshenko today at 8 PM of Kyiv time, at the weekly news show on Inter TV channel. But the press service of President has already quoted his interview. Mr. Yushchenko says that the last statements of PM Yulia Tymoshenko put her “in the opposition to Ukrainian people and the country”.
“Today the problem is not in my relationship with this lady”, President says. “She declared the opposition to the nation, to the country”. Viktor Yushchenko is sure that Prime Minister just wants to escape from the responsibility for her actions as a Head of Government.
“The situation is obviously out of control of Prime Minister for a long time”, Mr. Yushchenko emphasized. “But today the moment of responsibility is coming close. Who will be responsible for the inflation of 22%? External crisis? Our crisis is sitting on Grushevskogo street, 7th floor, in the office of Prime Minister”.
The central bank attacked back the Government two days before, stating that “the government's inept policies in running the economy... led to a situation in December in which the country could find itself in the internal default”. “The Government now has no funds to pay salaries, pensions and social benefits or to cover its domestic and external obligations”, the National Bank of Ukraine informed.
So, today the Prime Minister of Ukraine is in opposition to the President of Ukraine and to the National Bank of Ukraine. The President of Ukraine is in opposition to Prime Minister. The National Bank is also acting like a political body, declaring its non-support of the Government and its policies. Official opposition – the Party of Regions – is declaring it is against all the powers mentioned above, and is waiting for spring to come to power after the fail of the “Orange leaders”. The new-elected Speaker of the Parliament Volodymyr Lytvyn is claiming for neutrality, but in fact is in opposition to everyone who is interested in the snap parliamentary election, which would take the high post in Parliament off from him.
Friday, December 12, 2008
Parliamentary cheating – III. Is Yulia Tymoshenko trying to steal the President’s faction?
Just 30 minutes ago the press conference of Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko was finished. First of all, Mrs. Tymoshenko declared that the parliamentary coalition of three factions – the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko (BYT), the Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defence (OU-PSD) faction, and the Block of Volodymyr Lytvyn – does exist.
Talking about the coalition PM was operating with the word combination “the majority of OU-PSD faction”. According to parliamentary rules, the majority – not consensus – is making the final decisions inside any faction, emphasizes Yulia Tymoshenko. That means that the BYT will try to save the coalition in any price, even if the strictly pro-presidential part of the OU-PSD faction will be against that. Actually, President may lose his parliamentary faction and his influence in Parliament at all. (The possible consequences are rather predictable – a snap election). Deputy Chief of OU-PSD faction Borys Tarasyuk has already mentioned that he may sign the coalition treaty again, if the Chief of the faction Vyacheslav Kyrylenko will refuse to do it.
One more remark concerns the Blackstone company, hired by the Government for millions of dollars to consult Ukraine on how to spend $16,4 billion credit of the International Monetary Fund. Yulia Tymoshenko mentioned that the company was chosen “according the current legislation” (though nobody heard about such a tender), and that it is “highly estimated by the IMF management”. Also Mrs. Tymoshenko admitted that she did meet the billionaire George Soros in Kiev one month ago, and that he gave her “advices on how to fight the world financial and economic crisis’ consequences”.
Talking about the coalition PM was operating with the word combination “the majority of OU-PSD faction”. According to parliamentary rules, the majority – not consensus – is making the final decisions inside any faction, emphasizes Yulia Tymoshenko. That means that the BYT will try to save the coalition in any price, even if the strictly pro-presidential part of the OU-PSD faction will be against that. Actually, President may lose his parliamentary faction and his influence in Parliament at all. (The possible consequences are rather predictable – a snap election). Deputy Chief of OU-PSD faction Borys Tarasyuk has already mentioned that he may sign the coalition treaty again, if the Chief of the faction Vyacheslav Kyrylenko will refuse to do it.
One more remark concerns the Blackstone company, hired by the Government for millions of dollars to consult Ukraine on how to spend $16,4 billion credit of the International Monetary Fund. Yulia Tymoshenko mentioned that the company was chosen “according the current legislation” (though nobody heard about such a tender), and that it is “highly estimated by the IMF management”. Also Mrs. Tymoshenko admitted that she did meet the billionaire George Soros in Kiev one month ago, and that he gave her “advices on how to fight the world financial and economic crisis’ consequences”.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Parliamentary Cheating II. OK, the Speaker is elected, but is there any coalition in Ukrainian Parliament?
On Tuesday, 9 December at 17.46 PM by Kiev time Volodymyr Lytvyn was elected as a Head of the Verkhovna Rada. His candidacy was supported by 154 MPs from the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko (total size of faction – 156 MPs), 40 MP’s from the Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defence Block (total size of faction – 72), 20 MP’s from the Block of Volodymyr Lytvyn (total size – 20), and also 27 MP’s from the Communist party faction (total size – 27) and 3 MPs from the Party of Regions (total size – 175).
It was really hard to believe that the Presidential faction of the Our Ukraine - People’s Self-Defence Block (OU-PSD) will –support Volodymyr Lytvyn, together with the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko (BYT) and even with communists, despite the will of President Viktor Yushchenko, who was against the candidacy of Mr. Lytvyn and publicly in favour Ivan Plyushch, member of his party. But the things went even further: a new-elected Head of Parliament declared the formation of the coalition of OU-PSD, BYT, and the Block of Volodymyr Lytvyn.
The Tuesday events are still the object of discussion not only for political analysts, but also for politicians themselves. I would quote the main statements of historical Tuesday and the following day.
Tuesday, 9 December 2008:
Petro Symonenko, leader of the Communist Party of Ukraine stated his party supported the candidacy of Volodymyr Lytvyn to unblock the work of Parliament to fight the world economy crisis consequences. “We voted for the work of Verkhovna Rada”, he said, adding that the communists would never vote for Ivan Plyushch or any other candidacy from national-democratic forces.
Head of the Verkhovna Rada Volodymyr Lytvyn doesn’t see any preconditions to re-elect Prime Minister or to make cardinal changes of Government. But “it’s obvious that there will be some proposals from the coalition concerning the structure of the Government”, Mr. Lytvyn thinks.
Our Ukraine - People’s Self-Defence faction did not approve a text of the Treaty, forming the coalition of OU-PSD, BYT, and the Block of Volodymyr Lytvyn, the press-service of OU-PSD faction informed. Deputy Head of the faction Borys Tarasiuk signed the text of Coalition Treaty without the faction’s agreement. The project of Coalition Treaty will be in the agenda of a faction sitting on 10 December.
The Party of Regions has doubts on the liveliness of a new-formed coalition, if it will not have a permanent support of the Communist party, one of the PR faction leaders Oleksandr Efremov said. “It’s hard to imagine, how communists could work together with the nationalists”, he mentioned. “Without the Communist Party faction, the new-formed coalition doesn’t have 226 votes to approve decisions in Parliament”.
Member of Parliament of the OU-PSD faction (leader of the PSD) Vladyslav Kaskiv declared that there is no coalition in parliament as there is no decision of the OU-PSD faction on participation in this coalition; and there is also no Coalition Treaty as nobody in the OU-PSD is familiar with such a document. “De facto we can say that Volodymyr Lytvyn, obviously moved by positive emotions, made a political statement. But there are no legal fact of forming the coalition”, Mr. Kaskiv said. “We can not do good things with not honest methods… The misrepresenting of facts took place today”.
Wednesday, 10 December 2008:
The President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko greets Volodymyr Lytvyn for his election as a Head of Verkhovna Rada. “I hope that the election to this responsible position of so experienced and well-balanced politician will permit to unblock a work of the highest lawmaking institution of a country”, he noticed. Parliament has to approve anti-crisis laws and the project of a State Budget for 2009 as an urgent matter, and the needed condition for that is “parliamentary coalition, efficient and capable de jure and de facto”.
Member of Parliament of OU-PSD faction Ksenia Lyapina informed, “During 4 days we have to sign a Treaty (coalition treaty. – TV); if not, the Head of the Verkhovna Rada has to disown his statement about the formation of a coalition”. During the OU-PSD faction sitting on 10 December, MPs “came to a conclusion that the Coalition Treaty doesn’t exist, nobody of us signed it or authorised anybody to sign it”, Mrs. Lyapina noticed.
Taras Stetskiv, Member of Parliament (OU-PSD, PSD branch) emphasized that the coalition “legally does not exist as it is not signed”.
Oleksandr Efremov, the Party of Regions faction noticed that during the Coordination Council sitting Wednesday, 10 December “one of the Deputy Heads of OU-PSD block Roman Zvarych declared that his faction didn’t make a decision on formation of a coalition with the BYT and the Block of Lytvyn, and Borys Tarasiuk was not authorised to sign the Coalition agreement. So, in reality there is no parliamentary coalition”.
Statement of the Presidium of the Political Council of the party of Regions: “So-called formation of a coalition in Parliament is the another adventure and fraud of people. We don’t believe in capacity of this so-called coalition not only because it doesn’t have the quantity of voices needed. We don’t believe in this coalition as it is based on the politicians who had twice proved their incapacity to work together, to work effectively”… “Ukraine will have to watch again the scandal show of Orange chiefs, who are eager to sink each other in a spoon of water. The Party of Regions is out of this campaign. We also would like to hear a clear position of communists – which was their motivation, when they supported Oranges?”
First Deputy Head of the BYT faction Andriy Kozhemyakin hopes that “a progressive part” of the Party of Regions faction will take part in a constructive work of the Parliament. “It is obvious that the highest management of the Party of Regions is leaded by its own ambitions, not understanding that the crisis is a threat for independence of Ukraine”, he added.
Deputy Head of the OU-PSD faction Borys Tarasiuk issued a statement where he noticed that “due to the absence of a Head of the OU-PSD faction Ivan Kyrylenko during the negotiations, I took responsibility to sign the document on founding of a coalition of three factions – OU-PSD, BYT, and the Block of Lytvyn. Of course, I understood that it would be better if the Head of the faction signed this document. But I don’t know whether Ukrainians would understand us, if, delaying action until the next day, we lost this unique chance to start to work in Parliament normally”.
The Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko in her TV appeal to the citizens: “Parliamentary political crisis is over. A normal and consistent work will start in Verkhovna Rada tomorrow. Our hands are free from the irons… All these positive steps were done not with the help of President, but in spite of his active countermeasures to the formation of the Coalition”.
So, is there any coalition in Parliament? Nobody knows. The answer to this question depends on the results of current negotiations of parliamentary factions.
P.S. There is still a possibility of formation of a coalition in Verkhovna Rada with participation of the Party of Regions.
It was really hard to believe that the Presidential faction of the Our Ukraine - People’s Self-Defence Block (OU-PSD) will –support Volodymyr Lytvyn, together with the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko (BYT) and even with communists, despite the will of President Viktor Yushchenko, who was against the candidacy of Mr. Lytvyn and publicly in favour Ivan Plyushch, member of his party. But the things went even further: a new-elected Head of Parliament declared the formation of the coalition of OU-PSD, BYT, and the Block of Volodymyr Lytvyn.
The Tuesday events are still the object of discussion not only for political analysts, but also for politicians themselves. I would quote the main statements of historical Tuesday and the following day.
Tuesday, 9 December 2008:
Petro Symonenko, leader of the Communist Party of Ukraine stated his party supported the candidacy of Volodymyr Lytvyn to unblock the work of Parliament to fight the world economy crisis consequences. “We voted for the work of Verkhovna Rada”, he said, adding that the communists would never vote for Ivan Plyushch or any other candidacy from national-democratic forces.
Head of the Verkhovna Rada Volodymyr Lytvyn doesn’t see any preconditions to re-elect Prime Minister or to make cardinal changes of Government. But “it’s obvious that there will be some proposals from the coalition concerning the structure of the Government”, Mr. Lytvyn thinks.
Our Ukraine - People’s Self-Defence faction did not approve a text of the Treaty, forming the coalition of OU-PSD, BYT, and the Block of Volodymyr Lytvyn, the press-service of OU-PSD faction informed. Deputy Head of the faction Borys Tarasiuk signed the text of Coalition Treaty without the faction’s agreement. The project of Coalition Treaty will be in the agenda of a faction sitting on 10 December.
The Party of Regions has doubts on the liveliness of a new-formed coalition, if it will not have a permanent support of the Communist party, one of the PR faction leaders Oleksandr Efremov said. “It’s hard to imagine, how communists could work together with the nationalists”, he mentioned. “Without the Communist Party faction, the new-formed coalition doesn’t have 226 votes to approve decisions in Parliament”.
Member of Parliament of the OU-PSD faction (leader of the PSD) Vladyslav Kaskiv declared that there is no coalition in parliament as there is no decision of the OU-PSD faction on participation in this coalition; and there is also no Coalition Treaty as nobody in the OU-PSD is familiar with such a document. “De facto we can say that Volodymyr Lytvyn, obviously moved by positive emotions, made a political statement. But there are no legal fact of forming the coalition”, Mr. Kaskiv said. “We can not do good things with not honest methods… The misrepresenting of facts took place today”.
Wednesday, 10 December 2008:
The President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko greets Volodymyr Lytvyn for his election as a Head of Verkhovna Rada. “I hope that the election to this responsible position of so experienced and well-balanced politician will permit to unblock a work of the highest lawmaking institution of a country”, he noticed. Parliament has to approve anti-crisis laws and the project of a State Budget for 2009 as an urgent matter, and the needed condition for that is “parliamentary coalition, efficient and capable de jure and de facto”.
Member of Parliament of OU-PSD faction Ksenia Lyapina informed, “During 4 days we have to sign a Treaty (coalition treaty. – TV); if not, the Head of the Verkhovna Rada has to disown his statement about the formation of a coalition”. During the OU-PSD faction sitting on 10 December, MPs “came to a conclusion that the Coalition Treaty doesn’t exist, nobody of us signed it or authorised anybody to sign it”, Mrs. Lyapina noticed.
Taras Stetskiv, Member of Parliament (OU-PSD, PSD branch) emphasized that the coalition “legally does not exist as it is not signed”.
Oleksandr Efremov, the Party of Regions faction noticed that during the Coordination Council sitting Wednesday, 10 December “one of the Deputy Heads of OU-PSD block Roman Zvarych declared that his faction didn’t make a decision on formation of a coalition with the BYT and the Block of Lytvyn, and Borys Tarasiuk was not authorised to sign the Coalition agreement. So, in reality there is no parliamentary coalition”.
Statement of the Presidium of the Political Council of the party of Regions: “So-called formation of a coalition in Parliament is the another adventure and fraud of people. We don’t believe in capacity of this so-called coalition not only because it doesn’t have the quantity of voices needed. We don’t believe in this coalition as it is based on the politicians who had twice proved their incapacity to work together, to work effectively”… “Ukraine will have to watch again the scandal show of Orange chiefs, who are eager to sink each other in a spoon of water. The Party of Regions is out of this campaign. We also would like to hear a clear position of communists – which was their motivation, when they supported Oranges?”
First Deputy Head of the BYT faction Andriy Kozhemyakin hopes that “a progressive part” of the Party of Regions faction will take part in a constructive work of the Parliament. “It is obvious that the highest management of the Party of Regions is leaded by its own ambitions, not understanding that the crisis is a threat for independence of Ukraine”, he added.
Deputy Head of the OU-PSD faction Borys Tarasiuk issued a statement where he noticed that “due to the absence of a Head of the OU-PSD faction Ivan Kyrylenko during the negotiations, I took responsibility to sign the document on founding of a coalition of three factions – OU-PSD, BYT, and the Block of Lytvyn. Of course, I understood that it would be better if the Head of the faction signed this document. But I don’t know whether Ukrainians would understand us, if, delaying action until the next day, we lost this unique chance to start to work in Parliament normally”.
The Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko in her TV appeal to the citizens: “Parliamentary political crisis is over. A normal and consistent work will start in Verkhovna Rada tomorrow. Our hands are free from the irons… All these positive steps were done not with the help of President, but in spite of his active countermeasures to the formation of the Coalition”.
So, is there any coalition in Parliament? Nobody knows. The answer to this question depends on the results of current negotiations of parliamentary factions.
P.S. There is still a possibility of formation of a coalition in Verkhovna Rada with participation of the Party of Regions.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Boring and sad: the best words to explain a current state of Ukrainian politics.
The President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko was on TV yesterday. He appeared in a live political evening show “Svoboda slova” (Freedom of Speech) at ICTV channel. A lot of my friends were looking forward to that event as it might give some keys to predict future developments in Ukrainian politics. It didn’t give any hints. I was sitting in my kitchen, drinking tea and watching TV prepared to make notes, when I suddenly realised that I’m terribly bored. Bored of lack of constructivism and predictability in what our politicians are doing or saying. It was really sad to think that way.
Here are some points I've noticed. First of all, President wanted to separate himself from all the problems the country is suffering of. “Government lost control over inflation”, “the Government’s politic was not a politic of Maydan”, claimed Viktor Yushchenko. He accused in political and economy crisis a “state power” as something to which he doesn’t have any relation at all.
The second main point is about the estimation of future of Parliament. Verkhovna Rada should work; otherwise there will be early election – that was the President’s message. Viktor Yushchenko still hopes that it is possible to elect a technical Speaker and to build a so-called situational coalition in Parliament. (Some ideas on “technical coalition” – in one of my previous posts here). A candidacy for Speaker’s chair “should be proposed by Our Ukraine party”, President thinks. But at the same time he mentions, “Our Ukraine is half-bought by BYT”.
Third point is that the very idea of early election is still alive, despite of President’s Secretariat arguments. After a snap parliamentary poll, all the parties elected may start “from a white peace of paper”, hopes Mr. Yushchenko, “it will be possible to do the manoeuvres, impossible now”.
P.S. On 2 December Parliament was working only for a little bit more than a half of an hour. Next meeting is scheduled for Thursday. Two alternatives have been discussed in couloirs: total paralysis of Parliament followed with snap election or the coalition of the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko and the Party of Regions (the details – in this post). Volodymyr Lytvyn has already called this possible coalition as “coup d’etat”.
Here are some points I've noticed. First of all, President wanted to separate himself from all the problems the country is suffering of. “Government lost control over inflation”, “the Government’s politic was not a politic of Maydan”, claimed Viktor Yushchenko. He accused in political and economy crisis a “state power” as something to which he doesn’t have any relation at all.
The second main point is about the estimation of future of Parliament. Verkhovna Rada should work; otherwise there will be early election – that was the President’s message. Viktor Yushchenko still hopes that it is possible to elect a technical Speaker and to build a so-called situational coalition in Parliament. (Some ideas on “technical coalition” – in one of my previous posts here). A candidacy for Speaker’s chair “should be proposed by Our Ukraine party”, President thinks. But at the same time he mentions, “Our Ukraine is half-bought by BYT”.
Third point is that the very idea of early election is still alive, despite of President’s Secretariat arguments. After a snap parliamentary poll, all the parties elected may start “from a white peace of paper”, hopes Mr. Yushchenko, “it will be possible to do the manoeuvres, impossible now”.
P.S. On 2 December Parliament was working only for a little bit more than a half of an hour. Next meeting is scheduled for Thursday. Two alternatives have been discussed in couloirs: total paralysis of Parliament followed with snap election or the coalition of the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko and the Party of Regions (the details – in this post). Volodymyr Lytvyn has already called this possible coalition as “coup d’etat”.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Halloween in Ukrainian style. Part 2.
As I’ve promised, here is the second part of my impressions from the live TV programme with participation of all the main actors of a global show named Ukrainian Politics. Near 1 AM on 1st of November President Viktor Yushchenko had a possibility to give a conclusion speech, which was supposed to resume all the 4-hours-long talks on economic and political crisis in Ukraine.
“If you only knew how it is difficult to work as President of Ukraine,” were the very first words of a night declaration of Mr. Yushchenko. Almost all his following speech demonstrated how exactly he understands this uneasy role. It seems to me that Viktor Yushchenko feels like no more, no less but a pure conscience of a nation, standing above all persons and processes in the country and having a right to judge and blame everyone and everything – without any personal responsibility.
First hint that I want to mention is the most likely not planned but occasionally sounded out will of Viktor Yushchenko to push Yulia Tymoshenko down from a post of Prime minister in near future. Talking about an economic crisis, he underlined that “there are a list of measures to be taken by the Government, whoever will lead it”. “Who caused that (the crisis in Ukraine. – T.V.)? World crisis? It’s lye. All the crisis is sitting here,” prolonged President pointing on all the politicians present.
The point of view of Viktor Yushchenko on a government property is also worth to notice. I completely do not agree with the following statement: “The worst owner that could ever exist is a state”. And how about the strategic economic sectors and profitable state enterprises, Mr. Yushchenko?
I would like to bring attention to the “poetry” style of guarantor of the Constitution of Ukraine. I don’t know who wrote that exact speech for him, maybe it was an impromptu, but Viktor Yushchenko said the following: “The Government plunged into debts like a bitch into fleas” (Ukr.: Набрався боргів, як сучка блох”). Nice, huh?
The conclusion of a speech was not very pleasant at all. From the role of independent high arbiter President moved to prosecutor. “Shaking hands with you, I would like not to count my fingers after that (meaning that one or more might be stolen. – T.V.)”, addressed he to the BYT, looking not directly to Yulia Tymoshenko but to leader of BYT parliamentary faction Ivan Kyrylenko sitting not too close to him. “Not a world crisis destroyed us this year, but a social populism”, declared President, this time appealing in a Prime minister’s direction.
I wonder how people who even cannot talk to each other in a normal way – even on public – may lead the country out of a crisis to a better future.
P.S. President didn’t even use a word combination “snap election”. Conclusion: there will be no early parliamentary elections, at least in December 2008.
“If you only knew how it is difficult to work as President of Ukraine,” were the very first words of a night declaration of Mr. Yushchenko. Almost all his following speech demonstrated how exactly he understands this uneasy role. It seems to me that Viktor Yushchenko feels like no more, no less but a pure conscience of a nation, standing above all persons and processes in the country and having a right to judge and blame everyone and everything – without any personal responsibility.First hint that I want to mention is the most likely not planned but occasionally sounded out will of Viktor Yushchenko to push Yulia Tymoshenko down from a post of Prime minister in near future. Talking about an economic crisis, he underlined that “there are a list of measures to be taken by the Government, whoever will lead it”. “Who caused that (the crisis in Ukraine. – T.V.)? World crisis? It’s lye. All the crisis is sitting here,” prolonged President pointing on all the politicians present.
The point of view of Viktor Yushchenko on a government property is also worth to notice. I completely do not agree with the following statement: “The worst owner that could ever exist is a state”. And how about the strategic economic sectors and profitable state enterprises, Mr. Yushchenko?
I would like to bring attention to the “poetry” style of guarantor of the Constitution of Ukraine. I don’t know who wrote that exact speech for him, maybe it was an impromptu, but Viktor Yushchenko said the following: “The Government plunged into debts like a bitch into fleas” (Ukr.: Набрався боргів, як сучка блох”). Nice, huh?
The conclusion of a speech was not very pleasant at all. From the role of independent high arbiter President moved to prosecutor. “Shaking hands with you, I would like not to count my fingers after that (meaning that one or more might be stolen. – T.V.)”, addressed he to the BYT, looking not directly to Yulia Tymoshenko but to leader of BYT parliamentary faction Ivan Kyrylenko sitting not too close to him. “Not a world crisis destroyed us this year, but a social populism”, declared President, this time appealing in a Prime minister’s direction.
I wonder how people who even cannot talk to each other in a normal way – even on public – may lead the country out of a crisis to a better future.
P.S. President didn’t even use a word combination “snap election”. Conclusion: there will be no early parliamentary elections, at least in December 2008.
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Is IMF trying to influence politics in Ukraine?
The International Monetary Fund is not simply an international financial institution anymore. It is a centre of political decision-making. At least, in Ukraine. At a news conference on Thursday, prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko said that the IMF is ready to lend the country $3 billion to $14 billion to see it through the crisis, but only if the president postponed the elections. “It is very difficult for them to hold negotiations with Ukraine, when they hear all these proposals for early parliamentary elections,” she said. I wonder is the IMF is really trying to influence politics in Ukraine?
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