I was not blogging only for two days, but there are really a lot of things I want to say. First of all, I would like to thank Mr. Joseph Gregg from San Antonio, Texas for his letter and the ideas on Ukrainian politics (and one of its top-persons Viktor Yushchenko) he expressed. Mr. Gregg gave his kind permission to be quoted on this website, and I will be pleased to share his thoughts with the readers of my blog, and to have their feedback also. I’m going to post this new discussion-topic on this page later today, but now let me give a couple of ideas about current situation in the Parliament of Ukraine.
As the next parliamentary sitting is approaching, Ukrainian politicians, analysts, and journalists are trying to predict if any coalition is to be formed on 2 December, and if any person is to be elected as a Speaker of Verkhovna Rada. Yesterday I met with one of my ex-colleagues, who’s rather informed about the development of a dialogue between parliamentary factions. When I asked him what did he think on the future of Parliament, he gave a rather interesting answer.
So, according to his predictions, Volodymyr Lytvyn (the leader of a parliamentary block of the same name) will not be elected as a Speaker, although his candidature was supported publicly by Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Moreover, nobody will be elected as a Speaker on 2 December. The Parliament will be left “on the hook” at least for a week or two. Or more. Then as an “urgent measure to save the country’s economy” a coalition between the Block of Julia Tymoshenko (BYT) and the “Party of Regions” (PR) of Viktor Yanukovych will be formed. This pact may be strengthened by a part of President’s faction “Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defence”. Volodymyr Lytvyn and his block will not join this coalition, as he will not have any political and practical dividends from that. The government will be re-structured to change “people of President” for people from the PR. After a while the Parliament will change the Constitution of Ukraine in order to switch to the pure parliamentary democracy, and to elect the President in Parliament. Posts of the President and Prime Minister will be divided between Mrs. Tymoshenko and Mr. Yanukovych. Also they will divide all the Ukraine (areas of political and business interests), and will live long and happy. The end.
I would like to add that the idea of coalitioning of Mrs. Tymoshenko and Mr. Yanukovych has been widely discussed in Ukraine for a long time. But previously personally I didn’t believe in that. My logic was the following: building of the coalition with the Party of Regions is surely an effective step in law-making process (as both parties have very strict party discipline, and may perform a positive vote on any topic their leaders would agree), but it will harm the image of Yulia Tymoshenko dramatically. Viktor Yanukovych was one of the guys the Orange Revolution and Maydan were about, and the electorate of BYT is consisted of people who believe in the ideals and promises of the Orange Revolution. Taking to the account the presidential ambitions of Julia Tymoshenko, the coalition with Yanukovych may lead her to failure.
But if the goal of the new coalition is to change the type of democracy, and to establish pure parliamentary republic, there is no need to care about electoral ratings. And that makes the coalition to look like a very well constructed step. But very cynical also, I should add. The BYT-PR coalition will be also supported by Russia as less nationally oriented. Actually that’s not good for Ukrainian independence, both economic and political. But in a short-term it may look like even profitable for Ukraine to fight crisis more effectively, using Russian gas at low-price again.
Anyway there are some contra-arguments. First of all, even if such a coalition is to be formed, it may not be liveable. Both political powers (and their leaders) don’t trust each other, and don’t respect each other. Secondly, there are really no rules in today’s Ukrainian politics. Every plan may be approved, but changed two hours later. Even this very moment a new way for development of political situation in Ukraine may be discussed.
P.S. One more question: and what about Viktor Yushchenko? May Ukraine come back to the situation of late 2004?