SPIEGEL ONLINE: In Russian Hands. US Forced to Change Course in Relations with Ukraine

The US wants to lure the Ukrainians toward the West -- but how? The victors of the Orange Revolution have failed, and US diplomatic cables show that dealing with the new president has been far more difficult. The country has become the stage for a proxy conflict with the Kremlin.

When seeking a productive working relationship with an undesired newcomer, it is best to have a plan. On Feb. 23 of this year John Tefft, the American ambassador in Kiev, was preparing a plan for the arrival of US National Security Advisor James Jones. On the occasion of the inauguration of the new Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, Jones was to convey a generous offer of friendship: The administration of US President Barack Obama "looks forward to working with you across the full range of issues," Tefft's brief suggested Jones tell the new Ukrainian leader.

Jones, who had fought against Moscow's allies in the Vietnam War, was seeking to strike a diplomatic blow against the Kremlin, by making Yanukovych into a US partner.

The Ukrainian was to bring his nation closer to the West. Tefft, above all, wanted to see Ukraine's security and economic policies brought into line with Western ideas. Financially, the highly indebted country would have to tighten its belt. "Encourage Ukraine to work with the International Monetary Fund to cut government expenditures."

An analysis of leaked diplomatic dispatches shows how the US had long been trying to loosen Russia's grip on Ukraine. For years, however, they had been throwing their support behind Yanukovych's political rival, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko. Now, though, Yanukovych was in power. And he was a well-known friend of the Russians. The US wished to prevent the nation of 45.8 million inhabitants from re-establishing close ties with its giant neighbor.

Staggering to the Election

In a run-off ballot for the presidential elections on Feb. 7, 2010, the populist Yanukovych had defeated his opponent Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, the flamboyant icon of the Orange Revolution. Incumbent Yushchenko had already been knocked out of the running during the first ballot in January when he only attracted 5.4 percent of the votes.

Yushchenko, a former chairman of Ukraine's central bank, was first elected to the presidency during the 2004 Orange Revolution with 51.9 percent of the vote -- thanks in part to millions of dollars from the US.

But his plan to lead the country as quickly as possible into NATO lacked the support of a majority of Ukrainians. Furthermore, he made Russia his enemy. And the power struggle with Tymoshenko also weakened his position.

The parliamentary elections in 2006 saw Yushchenko's bloc win less than 14 percent of the votes. Two months before the ballot the US Embassy had heard from someone close to the president that his party organization "was in complete shambles" and "would stagger to the election."

After the Russia-Georgia war of 2008 the Bush administration tried to give their chosen ally Yushchenko fresh political impetus by demonstrating their support for him. In September of that year, Vice President Dick Cheney traveled to Ukraine.

'Reputation as a Visionary'

In a dossier prepared for Cheney, the US Embassy in Kiev praised the beleaguered Ukrainian leader. "President Yushchenko has a reputation as a visionary and is the one Ukrainian leader who has had a solid unwavering commitment to seeing Ukraine in NATO and the European Union," the dispatch reads.

After Barack Obama succeeded George W. Bush, however, the new leadership at the US State Department began to have doubts about the "visionary" Yushchenko. According to a memo from May 22, 2009, the new US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was alarmed.

A member of the National Security Council had returned from Kiev and reported that his impression was "that the government lacked the political will to solve Ukraine's economic problems." Clinton noted that Ukraine's "political and economic instability was playing into Russian hands."

Ambassador Tefft knew, from private conversations with the Ukrainian ambassador to Moscow, Kostyantyn Hryshchenko, that the Kremlin did not have any favorites for the Ukrainian presidential elections in 2009/2010. According to a US dispatch, the former employee of the Soviet Foreign Ministry had said that "Putin likes Tymoshenko, but doesn't trust her; the Russians trust Yanukovych more, but they don't especially like him."

Wasting Opportunities

The US had its own doubts about Tymoshenko. They were confirmed after Ambassador Tefft received a Feb. 22 visit from retired Finance Minister Viktor Pynzenyk, a political ally of Tymoshenko's, who complained that Tymoshenko was a "destructive force." He said she "simply wanted to consolidate power in her own hands" and accused her of "wasting the opportunity for reform that came with the economic crisis."

The more apparent it became that Tymoshenko was going to lose, the closer Tefft tried to get to Yanukovych, a man formerly regarded as persona non grata by the US. At a friendly meeting with the US ambassador, Yanukovych -- a man the West had long considered to be a slave to Russia's interests -- made vague indications that he was open to US advances. "In a private discussion with Ambassador Tefft, Yanukovych held open the prospect of continued military cooperation with NATO and spoke of cooperation with Ukraine's military industrial sector," the diplomat reported on Jan. 29.

Tefft hoped that his informant Hryshchenko might become foreign minister under Yanukovych, which he did. That "would indicate a pragmatic approach that would seek to put relations with Russia on a positive footing without burning bridges to the West," he wrote.

The Americans had already written off their long-time favorite Yushchenko -- a man who then-US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright smiled widely at during a 2000 meeting as a grandmother would her favorite grandchild. In his classified dossier for National Security Advisor Jones, Ambassador Tefft only devoted one line to his political obituary: "He is widely blamed -- not least by many who voted for him in 2004 -- for his poor management, incessant quarrelling with Tymoshenko at the expense of national interests, needless antagonizing of Russia and his penchant for seeking declarations of membership from NATO and the EU."

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,732276,00.html

Revenge or Justice? Old criminal case re-launched against ex-PM of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko.

Today, on 12 May 2010, former Prime Minister and current active oppositionist Yulia Tymoshenko visited the Main Investigative Department of the Prosecutor General’s Office of Ukraine. She was officially informed that the criminal case No4912-93 has been re-launched against her.

It is an old, but not very clear story. There is no official information yet on the content of a case, but it is said that the case concerns suspected bribes. I may only say for sure that the criminal case No4912-93 against Mrs. Tymoshenko was opened in May 2004, while she was in a strong opposition to President Leonid Kuchma. Current President Viktor Yanukovych had been serving as a Prime Minister that time.

According to the Prosecutor General’s Office information service, the proceedings were closed in January 2005 – after the Orange Revolution and the inauguration of President Viktor Yushchenko. The planned investigative actions were not completed, PGO press service claims, and the pre-court trial has been re-launched.

Yulia Tymoshenko states that the case No4912-93 was closed in 2004 (e.g. before she came to power). At the today’s press briefing near the office of the PGO Main Investigative Department, she said that the investigation was dismissed due to the absence of crime components. ‘Prosecutor General’s Office is a repressive instrument of Yanukovych”, she argues. “A big shadow project on privatization of state monopolies has been prepared, using the technology of foundation of joint ventures with foreign country. Our political team is the only one which opposes to that”.

The same time some fresh cases have been opened against the team of Yulia Tymoshenko. The Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine Volodymyr Sivkovych has recently informed journalists that investigation of cases on stealing the budgetary funds by the Tymoshenko’s Government is planned to be finished by autumn 2010. By that time “the majority of opposition members will think on how to hide or escape”, he added. The alleged corrupt practices in a budget sphere are estimated to overcome 100 billion UAH (more than 12.5 billion USD).

Meanwhile, on 17-18 May the President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev will visit Ukraine again – to sign more documents, strengthening the ties between two countries. First of all, an agreement on the demarcation of Russia-Ukraine border is to be signed. Let’s see what Ukraine is granting to Russia in this field.

It is interesting to mention that on the day of Medvedev’s arrival to Kiev, Yulia Tymoshenko is invited to the PGO office again. Revenge or justice?

The Parliament of Ukraine has just passed a no-confidence motion against the Government of Yulia Tymoshenko.

Here are the results of the vote. 243 Members of Parliament of 404 registered today has voted in favor of Yulia Tymoshenko’s dismissal. Among them were:

172 MPs from the Party of Regions faction (whole faction)
7 MPs from Yulia Tymoshenko Block
15 MPs from Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defense faction
27 MPs from Communist party faction (whole faction)
19 MPs from Block of Volodymyr Lytvyn (all except Lytvyn)
3 independent MPs

Breaking News. Yulia Tymoshenko decided not to recognize the victory of Viktor Yanukovych and to contest the result of election in court.

The press conference of Yulia Tymoshenko was announced and cancelled two times today. Instead of making public speeches, Prime Minister held a closed sitting of her parliamentary faction. Yulia Tymoshenko, who, according to preliminary calculations of Central Election Commission, is 3.20 percent behind Viktor Yanukovych, had to make a vital decision: what to do next?

The result of today’s evening sitting couldn’t stay hidden from journalists (that’s what democracy is, by the way!). Ms Tymoshenko declared that she will not recognize the victory of head of the Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych, and ordered her lawyers to start legal proceedings to contest the result of the election. The main goal is to repeat voting, i.e. to have the third round of presidential election as it was in 2004.

According to the latest CEC data (99.44 percent of electronic ballot-count records counted), Viktor Yanukovych has 48.81 percent of the vote, and Yulia Tymoshenko – 45.61 percent. 4.37% of Ukrainians voted against all. 1.19% of ballots were declared invalid.
The turnout on 7 February was 69.07%.

To be continued tomorrow.

From 10 to 15 percent of votes may be fabricated during the presidential election – MP of the Yulia Tymoshenko faction

The idea of using the courts in making the decision on the result of the election of the President of Ukraine, using the 2004 scenario, is widely promoted by Ukrainian politicians these days. Especially by the political team of the Prime Minster of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko.

In particular, Sergiy Sobolev, Member of Parliament of Ukraine from the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko, said to the journalist of Ukrainian 5th TV channel on 11 January 2010 that ‘up to 10 percent of votes may be falsified’. ‘If we take to the account those voters who will vote at several polling places (which is possible due to some essential ‘holes’ in law on presidential election – T.V.), the fraud may raise up to 15 percent’, Mr. Sobolev added.

Expected Fraud. Is Yulia Tymoshenko preparing a ground to declare the results of presidential election as a fake?

The BYT (Block of Yulia Tymoshenko) parliamentary faction has accused the Central Election Commission in taking the decision, which will lead to the mass falsifications during the election of the President of Ukraine.

‘Controlled by the party of Regions majority at the Central Election Commission made a decision of 4 January this year on the procedure of vote at home, and inclusion of voters into the voter registers on election day, which contravenes the democratic standards for holding elections’, is said in today’s official statement of the BYT faction. ‘In such a way members of CEC, who are close to the Party of Regions, had de facto opened the unlimited opportunities for use of the mass fraud during the election of the President of Ukraine’.

“There is no doubt: the establishment of Viktor Yanukovych doesn’t believe in victory of its candidate in free and transparent election”, members of the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko declared.

By the way, all Ukrainian polls stated that the rating of Mr. Yanukovych is bigger than Ms. Tymoshenko’s one on 7-15%.

The BYT faction has proposed to hold an extraordinary sitting of the Parliament of Ukraine on 13 January – to change some procedures of vote, approved by the CEC, ‘to prevent fraud’. One shouldn’t be an expert to predict that the Parliament will fail to adopt any changes. But the fact of putting the question of electoral procedures on vote will surely give to one of the presidential candidates an extra-right to declare the result of vote on 19 January, and especially on 7 February (2 round), as a fraudulent.

Viktor Yanukovych has already commented the BYT initiative, saying that ‘we will fight, and we will not permit to make a decision on the result of election in courts’. But it seems to me that there may be a third round of election of the President of Ukraine – in the Arbitration Courts.

Flu epidemic has reached its peak, the Health Ministry of Ukraine informs. Meanwhile the opposition accused Yulia Tymoshenko in making money on panic.

The flu and ARVI epidemic in Ukraine has already reached its peak, Deputy Minister of Health of Ukraine Vasyl Lazoryshynets informed at the press-briefing today. According to Deputy Minister, 54% of people who were hospitalized since 29 October have already recovered from sickness.

Talking about the swine flu, Mr. Lazoryshynets said that there were 166 documented cases of swine flu (A/H1N1) in Ukraine, and 15 of them were fatal.

Though, it is well known that very limited number of Ukrainians had an opportunity to be examined, whether they have a swine flu or not. I asked my district doctor today (while she was filling in my sick-leave certificate), how many recommendations for a swine-flu examination had she signed in our district. The answer was ‘none at all’.

‘Some private clinics are practicing such an examination’, the nurse added. According to witnesses, one of the well-known Kyiv private medical centers performed a kind of PR-action in one of the shopping plazas in Kyiv: everyone passing-by was proposed to have a free swine-flu test.

The Health Ministry of Ukraine, and Vasyl Lazoryshynets in particular, also gave an interesting peace of indormation today. To receive any kind of swine-flu diagnostics an average Ukrainian should be either severely ill (hospitalized) or/and pregnant, or dead.

Meanwhile the opposition Party of Regions started to blame the Government and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in provoking total panic around the A/H1N1 epidemic, and even in making money on that. The MP from the Party of Regions Hanna Herman, Head of the Parliamentary Committee on Freedom of Speech and Information, has stated today during the popular TV-show that the epidemic is a way for the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko to earn money on selling drugs via affiliated and ‘friendly’ companies.

‘Yulia Tymoshenko made money on drugs during the epidemic’, Hanna Herman declared.
Now the Government says the epidemic has finished. And even more – Government is supporting the Junior Eurovision Song Contest to be held this Saturday in Kyiv. That suggests the flu epidemic panic was fake, MP assumed.

First-comers. The Central Election Commission of Ukraine received registration papers from first two presidential candidates.

On 20 of October the Central Election Commission of Ukraine started to accept registration documents from potential candidates to the presidential post. The first guy who submitted his papers to the Central Election Commission was some Oleh Riabokon, 36 y. o. lawyer. Mr. Riabokon is a co-founder of the “Master and Partners” law firm. Among other co-founders of this company was Sergiy Vlasenko (Member of Parliament, Yulia Tymoshenko block). Of course, Mr. Ryabokon has no chance to win any noticeable result during this election, except the PR for his name and his company.

The second fastest pretender for the first chair in the country is Anatoly Hrytsenko, MP from the “Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defence” faction, ex-Minister of Defense, and ex-team-mate of the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko. The friendship with President finished after the dismissal of Mr. Hrytsenko from the ministerial office. Anatoly Hrytsenko also has no chance to become a next President of Ukraine, but his rating may rise up to the level of 5-6 heavyweighters, which will surely help him during the next parliamentary election (still expected next year). To whom it may be interesting, I am giving a link to the Ukrainian language website of Mr. Hrytsenko.

The theater of the absurd. President Yushchenko's address to the Ukrainian nation - full text.

State of Ukrainian politics is getting worse, more and more resembling the theater of the absurd. I would like to give here a full text of President Yushchenko's urgent televised address to the Ukrainian nation of 30 January 2009 (the official tanslation, provided by the Press office of President).

Dear fellow countrymen,
I decided to address you to provide clear and honest information on economic, budgetary and financial situation in Ukraine. I appeal to you, dear fellow countrymen, to back up the demand to Ukrainian government and parliamentary majority to stop the flow of lie, hypocrisy, aspersions and to immediately, I emphasize that, immediately start acting to save national economy.
The state has absolutely misbalanced financial system.State institutions are knowingly being ruined because of lack of financing. I am not speaking of personal accusations now. I leave this dirt aside.
We were witnesses to a witches’ sabbath in the parliament around the question of the National Bank. It was evidently explained by single intention – to gain access to money printing in order to cover losses in the State Budget. This can result in inflation unseen before. This can result in social catastrophe. I am forced to say this to bring politicians round. Ukrainian industry is falling. People are being fired or forced to long-term leaves. In Moscow, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko made gas deals disadvantageous for Ukraine. The contracts do not correspond with my directives.
The Prime Minister made that decision personally, without consulting collegial opinion of the government. The majority, supporting Yulia Tymoshenko, beginning with her block and to communists, must explain this. The state was put before the fact. The contracts were signed and we must abide by them. In 2009 Ukraine will have to pay for gas 25 billion hryvnyas more than last year. However, Naftogaz’s profit from the transit remains the same as in 2008.The Prime Minister undoubtedly knows that finding additional resources to pay for gas is only possible at internal market, meaning increase of prices for the consumers. Every passing minute is priceless now.
I demand immediate alterations to 2009 State Budget. This is the only way to put things right. I have warned the government and parliamentary majority, who were authors of this year’s state budget, that the document is a cloud-castle. For today the government has not collected even a half of the amount of taxes and dues, planned for January. The cause is the same again – unreal budget. My conclusions are based on evaluation by Minister of Finance Viktor Pynzenyk. The opinion of this Minister is decisive in preparation of estimate in any state. Today he is not heard, first of all in the government.
I address Yulia Tymoshenko and the majority she has organized. This is your responsibility. Respected Yulia Volodymyrivna, you knowingly put unrealistically high numbers and promises into the budget, which you are unable to keep up to today. The funds, including those meant for next repayment of savings, are not concentrated, they are scattered. I address each deputy from Yulia Tymoshenko’s majority. Respected deputy, you support populism, which will tomorrow result in unpaid wages, pensions, scholarships, and other social support. I emphasize that – it is your responsibility. Because of your silent consent – doctors, teachers, and military men will not get their money. There will be no funds for schools or hospitals. You will be answering for that before Ukrainian people.
I address Verkhovna Rada Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn. Respected Volodymyr Mykhaylovych, you perfectly understand that current budget is top provocative factor to the crisis in Ukraine. For the sake of state interests I ask you to consolidate the parliament to make alterations to the budget and approve urgent anti-crisis decisions. On behalf of the whole country I demand that the government and the parliament immediately worked out honest budget, where expenses would correspond with capabilities of the economy. This is your constitutional, state and political duty.
I emphasize – all the responsibility for economic situation, for disruption of budgetary process, for destruction of banks system in accordance with the Constitution is upon Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in person. When she reaches deadline, she will not be able to hide in opposition. Enough lies.
I appeal to all fellow countrymen to stay calm. You will be protected. We are able to protect the country and people. The most important thing now is to find political will and courage and to approve a realistic budget for 2009.In order to achieve that I will use all instruments necessary in the state of crisis.

Parliamentary Control. Starting from today, a special Investigation Commission of MPs will follow the gas negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.

Today the Parliament of Ukraine has founded a Temporary Investigation Parliamentary Commission to follow all the developments of current gas crisis. The Committee is going to examine the actions of Ukrainian officials in the sphere of gas supply and gas transit in 2008, and also will follow the negotiations with Russian Gazprom in 2009. The questions of signing the new gas supply and transit contracts – including financial issues, like gas price – will be under everyday control of the Commission.

222 MPs voted in favour of the Commission’s founding: 174 members of the Party of Regions (total size of faction – 175 MPs), 27 members of Communist party (total size – 27), and 19 members of the Block of the Speaker Lytvyn (total size – 19). The Block of Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko (BYT) and all the faction Our Ukraine – People Self-Defence (OU-PSD) didn’t support the idea of establishing the parliamentary control of gas problematic.

The new-elected Head of the Temporary Investigation Commission Inna Bogoslovska (member of the Party of Regions) promised to give the information on its findings to press every three days. “Our task is to speed up the signing of two contracts”, Inna Bogoslovska explained. On 6 February the preliminary report of the Commission will be presented in Parliament. The Commission (according to the size of every faction, it comprises 4 MPs from the Party of Regions, 3 MPs from the BYT, 2 MPs from the OU-PSD, 1 MP from BL and one Communist) is going to work during two months.

“It may well happen that, according to the results of this Commission’s activities, the question on the impeachment of President and the resignation of Government will be raised”, Inna Bogoslovska said. The leader of the Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych went further today, calling for the immediate Government resignation. The Communist party on its turn proposed to start the impeachment procedure as soon as possible.

P.S. I’m not going to comment a lot the today’s “blockade” of Russian gas transit to Europe as I still think that this “problem” is staged by some forces from Russia AND Ukraine. I would only add one point concerning the gas interests of Russia. It is important to pay attention to one interesting figure the Prime Minister of Russia Vladimir Putin mentioned during his meeting with foreign journalists last week. He told that Russia might pay for the Middle Asian gas “on average $375 per tcm” in 2009. As the European gas prices (in most of the EU countries) are linked to the oil prices, and the oil prices are still falling despite of all the Russian efforts and the statements of the OPEC countries, it is reasonable for Moscow just to win time for extra negotiations, in particular, with the successor of Turkmenbashi. But I have to say that Russia will have to re-start gas export to Europe in a very short time – there are simply not enough of gas storage facilities on the Russian territory. In a while Moscow will face only two choices: to transit the gas to Europe or to burn it (or to close some gas wells), losing money Gazprom needs too much today.

Expected gift – II. The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine didn’t approve the budget 2009 again.

The Parliament of Ukraine voted against a budget 2009 three times this morning. MPs failed to approve the document as a whole, and then in the first reading. Parliament considered also a proposition to come back to the budget discussion today, but the majority voted against that. The problem is that the Party of Regions, the Communist party and pro-president part of the Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defence Block (MP’s Group “For Ukraine” founded by ex-Head of the faction Vyacheslav Kyrylenko) don’t support the budget project as it is today.

MP’s have decided to hold sittings on Tuesday, 30 December and Wednesday, 31 December. But a lot of people predict that Ukraine will start the New Year without a budget. Parliament will probably approve the document in January.