Saturday, October 31, 2009

J.P.Morgan: Tymoshenko victory in elections to lead to greater stability in 2010.

One of the news agencies of Ukraine UNIAN has distributed a link to the J.P. Morgan website*d_338911.pdf*h_7ostu6ta where the "economic research" about the consequences of Ukrainian presidential election 2010 is published.

The name of the research - Tymoshenko victory in elections to lead to greater stability in 2010 - tells for itself about the level of the impartiality of the J.P. Morgan experts. I quote here just a couple of statements of the report, rather peremptory, I may say.

"A Tymoshenko victory should bring fiscal consolidation in 2010 and an earlier return to growth."

"Although there are now few differences in policy programs between the main presidential candidates, we believe that a Tymoshenko victory will be the most positive outcome given the current make up of the Rada and Tymoshenko’s plans to strengthen the presidential post."

"We expect a Tymoshenko presidency to lead to fiscal consolidation, improved lending and capital inflows from 2Q 2010 culminating in brighter growth prospects in 2H2010 and 2011. A Yanukovych victory, meanwhile, may lead to early parliamentary elections and possibly a breakdown of the IMF agreement before stabilizing in 4Q2010."

"As for the pending IMF tranche, we expect the Fund to delay disbursement until December 2009 and reduce the scheduled disbursement of US$3.9bn to increase bargaining power next year."

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