J.P.Morgan: Tymoshenko victory in elections to lead to greater stability in 2010.

One of the news agencies of Ukraine UNIAN has distributed a link to the J.P. Morgan website https://mm.jpmorgan.com/stp/t/c.do?i=95863-48B&u=a_p*d_338911.pdf*h_7ostu6ta where the "economic research" about the consequences of Ukrainian presidential election 2010 is published.

The name of the research - Tymoshenko victory in elections to lead to greater stability in 2010 - tells for itself about the level of the impartiality of the J.P. Morgan experts. I quote here just a couple of statements of the report, rather peremptory, I may say.

"A Tymoshenko victory should bring fiscal consolidation in 2010 and an earlier return to growth."

"Although there are now few differences in policy programs between the main presidential candidates, we believe that a Tymoshenko victory will be the most positive outcome given the current make up of the Rada and Tymoshenko’s plans to strengthen the presidential post."

"We expect a Tymoshenko presidency to lead to fiscal consolidation, improved lending and capital inflows from 2Q 2010 culminating in brighter growth prospects in 2H2010 and 2011. A Yanukovych victory, meanwhile, may lead to early parliamentary elections and possibly a breakdown of the IMF agreement before stabilizing in 4Q2010."

"As for the pending IMF tranche, we expect the Fund to delay disbursement until December 2009 and reduce the scheduled disbursement of US$3.9bn to increase bargaining power next year."

Ukraine shuts schools,cancels public events due H1N1 | Reuters

Ukraine shuts schools,cancels public events due H1N1 Reuters

(Adds schools closed, public events banned)

KIEV, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Ukraine on Friday closed schools, banned all public events and imposed restrictions on people's movements around the country for a three-week period after confirming its first death from H1N1 swine flu. "All educational institutions without exception ... will be switched on to a three-week holiday period," Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko announced. She indicated this period could be extended if it was deemed necessary.

"Apart from this, we will take the decision to cancel all mass meetings ... for three weeks," she said at an emergency government session. "We will introduce a special system to stop unnecessary travel by people from one region to another," she added.

Earlier, the health ministry confirmed that one of 30 deaths in western Ukraine since mid-October which had been attributed to flu and pneumonia had been caused by the H1N1 strain, commonly known as swine flu. "So far, not all the dead were tested (for H1N1)," a health ministry spokeswoman said. "However, tests on one dead (person) proved positive."

"We are considering (imposing) a quarantine not only in the west, but also across the country because the virus is spreading very fast," Health Minister Vasyl Knyazevych told a news conference, without giving details. (Reporting by Natalya Zinets and Pavel Polityuk; Writing by Richard Balmforth; Editing by Louise Ireland)

The rating of main presidential candidates (according to 5 polls, conducted at the beginning of October 2009)

The Endless Circle. Ukraine may have snap parliamentary poll in May 2010.

Ukraine may expect the comeback of a ghost of an early parliamentary election in 2010. This secret is widely known as after the presidential election in January-February 2010, the winner (whoever it will be) would surely want to take it all, and to form the majority in Parliament using the effect of his recent victory.

The same point of view has confirmed Volodymyr Lytvyn, Chairman of the Parliament of Ukraine and a newly registered presidential candidate. In May 2010 Ukraine will have snap parliamentary election, he told journalists today.

He emphasized that ‘under the current circumstances in Parliament, a lot of problems will appear’, that’s why the new President will surely try to nail down a success. The key position in country will be the Prime Minister’s office, Mr. Lytvyn added.

Electoral Tears. Speaker of Ukrainian Parliament pretends he’s crying during the ceremony of his presidential nomination

First-comers. The Central Election Commission of Ukraine received registration papers from first two presidential candidates.

On 20 of October the Central Election Commission of Ukraine started to accept registration documents from potential candidates to the presidential post. The first guy who submitted his papers to the Central Election Commission was some Oleh Riabokon, 36 y. o. lawyer. Mr. Riabokon is a co-founder of the “Master and Partners” law firm. Among other co-founders of this company was Sergiy Vlasenko (Member of Parliament, Yulia Tymoshenko block). Of course, Mr. Ryabokon has no chance to win any noticeable result during this election, except the PR for his name and his company.

The second fastest pretender for the first chair in the country is Anatoly Hrytsenko, MP from the “Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defence” faction, ex-Minister of Defense, and ex-team-mate of the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko. The friendship with President finished after the dismissal of Mr. Hrytsenko from the ministerial office. Anatoly Hrytsenko also has no chance to become a next President of Ukraine, but his rating may rise up to the level of 5-6 heavyweighters, which will surely help him during the next parliamentary election (still expected next year). To whom it may be interesting, I am giving a link to the Ukrainian language website of Mr. Hrytsenko.

Get ready, get set, go! Ukraine officially launched a presidential election campaign on Monday. Today the nomination of the candidates starts.

Last time Ukraine elected president in 2004, when, after the Orange revolution, Viktor Yushchenko came to power, accusing his main rival Viktor Yanukovych in the falsification of the results of the previous tour of election. Now the situation has changed dramatically: according to polls, Mr. Yanukovych is a leading contender. Viktor Yushchenko – on contrary – may try to use his presidential administrative resource during his campaign, experts say.

The second rating has another hero of Orange revolution – the Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko. Third – ex-Head of Parliament, and ex-Minister for Foreign Affairs Arseniy Yatseniuk.

Other pretenders are former Head of the National Bank of Ukraine Sergiy Tigipko, current Speaker of the Parliament Volodymyr Lytvyn, Communist party leader Petro Symonenko, and radically right politician Oleh Tyagnybok.

The nomination of the candidates starts today, on 20 October 2009, and will last until 6 November. The last day for the documents’ submission to the Central Electoral Commission is the 9 of November. The CEC has to register all the candidates until 13 November 2009.

In 2009 Ukrainian economy will fall by 15-16%, ex-Minister of Finance of Ukraine Viktor Pynzenyk predicts.

In 2009 Ukrainian economy will fall by 15-16%. Such a pessimistic prognosis of former Minister of Finance of Ukraine Viktor Pynzenyk made public today. He has also said that the budget deficit may climb above 33% of GDP in 2009, and 15% in 2010.

The Government of Ukraine determined a fiscal deficit at the level of 3.97% of GDP in the project of State Budget for 2010.